|
| Friday, March 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||
Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||
UCLA at No. 1 Stanford
Because the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee takes into consideration injuries, suspensions and disciplinary actions, UCLA can make a great case to get into the tournament now that JaRon Rush is back. If the Bruins can get to 17 or 18 wins -- and Thursday's win over California got them to 16) I believe they should dance, because they will have played one of the five toughest schedules in the nation, and have played 23 games without their best player. The pressure is on UCLA, though, to beat Washington and Washington State next week. But first, they need to at least show well against Stanford. Having Rush back gives UCLA a much needed boost on and off the court. There has been a cloud of negativity hanging over the UCLA program this season, due to the Rush suspension and the criticism of the program by local writers, radio jocks and overly sensitive boosters. Here's the deal: Rush was mistreated by the NCAA, and Steve Lavin is a good coach who has faced some tough obstacles this season.
That being said, the Bruins still have their hands full with a Stanford team continuing to roll. The Cardinal have won 12 straight by double digits by an average margin of 24 points -- and that was before they drilled USC by 43 points on Thursday. Stanford is a great team that does not get near the credit it deserves because the Cardinal players are not spectacular athletically, and because Stanford plays on the West Coast while the East Coast dozes off to sleep. Well, if you are caught napping for any period of time against Stanford, you will get your rear end handed to you, because the Cardinal are outstanding at every phase of the game. Stanford will impact this game defensively, because the Cardinal is the nation's most sound defensive team. Stanford does not gamble or force turnovers with great pressure, they just guard the pants off you from the 3-point line to the basket. There will be no tricky double-teams or complicated switches; rather, they will get down in a stance and make it tough for UCLA to get an unchallenged shot. Then they'll rebound the miss, take it down, and force UCLA to guard them. This is a great team, and one that should be remembered in Palo Alto for a long time.
When UCLA has the ball The Bruins like to push the ball, and their big guys can run the floor and finish. Jerome Moiso and Dan Gadzuric are exceptional athletes who have played well when challenged by other good big men, and they will be challenged against Stanford's imposing frontline. UCLA runs some 3-out, 2-in motion and has several set playcalls, including a 1-4 set that can get them a lob to Earl Watson. The Bruins also look to work a high-low game between Moiso and Gadzuric. With Rush back, UCLA will have a slasher who will crash the glass at every opportunity, and who will throw his body right into the middle of every play. Rush has been practicing with the Bruins all season, except for road trips, and will rejoin the team with full eligibility on Friday after Thursday's game at California. Steve Lavin feels that Rush can make the transition back to playing fairly easily, because he is almost a "freak of nature" as an athlete, and has stayed in amazing condition. Clearly, he will have some timing adjustments to make, and having to adjust against the nation's best team is no easy task. Moiso is a key in this game, and if he can get some offensive board opportunities early, could play well. He has decent post moves, but sometimes disappears when things do not go his way. A lefty, Moiso loves to turn over his right shoulder and rise up for a turnaround jumper or a jump hook. Gadzuric is a powerful big man who can dominate down low, but needs the ball close in to be truly effective. If Stanford can push him off the blocks, he is much less effective. Gadzuric also loves to crash the offensive glass, with almost half of his rebounds coming on the offensive end. Jason Kapono is the Bruins' best player. He's a very smart player who is looking to score or make a scoring play every time down. If Stanford does not find him on the break, Kapono will be found by whoever's leading the break and hit open 3-pointers. He and Casey Jacobsen are the best freshmen in the league (outside of Tucson, that is...Jason Gardner and Gilbert Arenas are beyond being lumped in with anyone else). Earl Watson has been playing very well of late, and is a capable point guard. He's strong, smart and a good guard rebounder who can get out and guard people. Stanford has to keep Watson off of the free throw line. The key for UCLA is protecting the ball. The Bruins have had problems hanging onto the pill, and have been getting stripped too easily. When UCLA coughs it up, Stanford will get easy hoops without having to play against UCLA's halfcourt defense.
When Stanford has the ball Stanford is a disciplined offensive team that runs some very good offensive sets, including a lot of flairs, crosses, flex action, high-low and double stacks. Montgomery has taught this group how to play, not just how to run sets, and the Cardinal are very hard to defend. Not only does Stanford have Mark Madsen inside, but the outside game is very strong. Madsen is back to his old "Mad Dog" ways, averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds over his last five games. Madsen loves contact, blocks out hard on both ends and is one great position player. When the ball moves side to side, Madsen moves as the ball moves and locks down his defender with a great seal. He has perhaps the best understanding of positioning of any big man in America. Add in his huge hands, and when Madsen goes after the ball (with both hands and not just one), he'll usually get it. Madsen is flanked by Jarron Collins, who has some exceptional face-up skills, and Jason Collins, a huge load in the paint. Jason Collins is a prototype 7-footer who plays a mental game as well as a physical game. Stanford's big guys block shots, block out, and block the sun. They do not allow second shots, and they are excellent help defenders. Undervalued by most observers, Stanford's outside game is in capable hands. Michael McDonald has been solid all season, doing a great job running the team. He's very quick, has good defensive ability and makes very good decisions. Every pass with him is not a scoring pass, he just gets the ball to where it needs to be so others can make decisions with it. In other words, McDonald is a true leader who does not need credit and doesn't need to dominate the ball to feel like a point guard. Maybe its his genes: McDonald's dad, Glenn, was drafted by the Boston Celtics in 1974, and he is now an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Sparks of the WNBA. David Moseley is an outstanding shooter who can also put the ball on the floor. He plays well in big games, and is capable of getting 30 any given night. Jacobsen is the Cardinal's leading scorer as a freshman, and is wise beyond his years in the ways of scoring. He has a jumpshot with a pure release point, great range and pull-up ability. Ryan Mendez was a starter but is now the most capable shooter on anybody's bench. He has been helped on the mental side by former Olympic gold medalist Kerri Strug, and he comes off the bench firing up 3s like nobody's business. Mendez gets his shot off quickly and is a straight-up shooter you must pressure and make him dribble. North Carolina at No. 4 Duke
It's Senior Day at Cameron Indoor Stadium, and Chris Carrawell will be playing in his final home game. Carrawell should get a long standing ovation during the team's pregame ceremony honoring the seniors because he has been an absolute warrior for the Blue Devils over his four years, and he will go down in Duke history as one of its most prolific winners. (A senior day aside: is there any better Senior Day ceremony than the one at Indiana? It takes place after the game, and the players all speak to the fans. Gene Keady said recently that he would do it that way in the future because it leaves the emotion for after the game, and doesn't drain the players early.)
When Duke has the ball Almost every position can score, and Duke continues to put the ball on the deck and drive at every opportunity. Duke shoots a lot of free throws, and is a capable offensive rebounding team when full concentration is not given to putting a body on them running in from the perimeter or on long rebounds. With Carolina's size, Boozer can have a tough time unless Duke is able consistently to hit perimeter shots and penetrate off the dribble. Battier continues to show an improved offensive game with his ball fakes and rocker step. He can get hot, and is looking to score every time he gets the ball. Carrawell makes big plays, and is one of the toughest kids mentally in the nation. Williams is really becoming a true point guard. He pushes the ball and can finish with fervor. With his great hands, strong moves, quickness around the basket and ability to his left hand in traffic, Boozer will be a challenge for Brendan Haywood and Kris Lang. Nate James has been solid, and has battled sickness without complaint. Duke's question mark comes on the glass. Duke is not a great rebounding team, and can get outsized and worn down on the glass. Without Michael Dunleavy, who played great at North Carolina, Duke becomes vulnerable to fouls and getting fatigued. Long TV timeouts will help, and so will some block-outs.
When North Carolina has the ball North Carolina should pound the ball inside to Haywood. The Tar Heels have the ability to get high-percentage shots and get fouled, and Duke cannot afford to pick up cheap ones early. Carolina's big men screen well for each other, and they get great position down low. Carolina runs motion offense and set playcalls, using a lot of ball screens, backpacks, 1-4 low alignments and the occasional Carolina backdoor. Haywood has been more active in ACC games than he was early in the season, and is averaging 14 points and nine rebounds while shooting better than 70 percent from the field. He needs to call for the ball and be dominant in this game. Last time these two teams met, Haywood fouled out after picking up a cheap foul, and Carolina could not get it done in overtime. If Haywood gets set up inside, there is no way to stop him from scoring. Jason Capel and Joseph Forte are Carolina's best 3-point threats, and must be made to put the ball on the floor. Ed Cota has struggled at times with his offense, but there is no better passer and handler in the ACC. When Cota is aggressive on the offensive end, he is the best point guard in the league. He will be tough for Duke to stay in front of, and always seems to rise to the challenge of playing well in Cameron. Lang is the wild card in this game, because Duke could have a tough time guarding him. He's very skilled in the post, but is still suffering the effects of his illness earlier this year. The question for North Carolina is this: Will the Heels guard Duke? They can get out and guard people, they have to want to. If Carolina can guard people, rebound the ball, and get it inside early, the Tar Heels will win this game. |