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Monday, November 4
Updated: November 7, 10:00 AM ET
 
Tough to rise, easy to fall, in Big 12

By Jeff Shelman
Special to ESPN.com

It's one part blessing another part curse. That's what playing in the Big 12 is like if you don't live in Lawrence, Kan., or Norman, Okla.

On one hand, the Big 12's status this season as the best conference in the country is great. Everybody's RPI will go up, there are so many more opportunities for quality victories and teams don't have to win the league to get to the NCAA Tournament.

Big-12 Projections
Here are ESPN.com's Big 12 projections and previews of each team:
1. Oklahoma
2. Kansas
3. Texas
4. Missouri
5. Texas Tech
6. Oklahoma State
7. Iowa State
8. Baylor
9. Colorado
10. Nebraska
11. Kansas State
12. Texas A&M
All-Big-12 Team
G: Kirk Hinrich
Kansas, Senior
G: Hollis Price
Oklahoma, Senior
G: T.J. Ford
Texas, Soph
F: Nick Collison
Kansas, Senior
F: Arthur Johnson
Missouri, Junior
Most Valuable Player
Hollis Price, Oklahoma
Newcomer of the Year
Nate Johnson, Nebraska
Freshman of the Year
Jimmy McKinney, Missouri

But, on the other hand, there's the reality that every team in the conference is going to play three games against a Final Four team from a year ago, not to mention it's going to be difficult to crack that top two, and pleasing fans is going to be more difficult.

The reality is this: Texas, Texas Tech and Missouri are all good basketball teams. They all very well may make the NCAA Tournament, but none of them are even close to the Big 12 favorites. Throw those teams somewhere else in the country and they would start this season with a lot of attention.

But is it that clear cut? Can any of the teams in the Big 12's next tier crack into the top two? Are the Jayhawks or Sooners vulnerable? Or are there two teams playing for first place and 10 fighting it out for third?

Of the next group of teams, Texas probably has the best chance to move into the top two. After all, the Longhorns return all five starters from a team that reached the Sweet 16, and their point guard -- sophomore T.J. Ford -- is one of the best in the country.

"Our team thinks it can play," Texas coach Rick Barnes said. "I like this team, it's really matured. They know preseason expectations are great, but they don't mean anything."

After the Longhorns, however, it's difficult to know if anyone else can really contend for the title as each team has a fault. Texas Tech got blown out by both Kansas and Oklahoma; Missouri will start an all new backcourt after losing nearly 50 percent of its scoring from a year ago; Oklahoma State might not be able to score enough points to be competitive at a high level.

And that's the negative of playing in the Big 12. A team could very well be one of the top 25 teams in the country and finish fourth in the conference.

"I think it can help you get better," Missouri coach Quin Snyder said. "But when you're losing games in January and February, it's hard to take solace in that.

"KU and Oklahoma and Texas are a cut above. And Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are very, very good. It's going to be tough (for anyone else to reach the top two). Toughness is going to be a big thing. You have to be able to win on the road and you're going to need a couple of players make big plays two win games."

But, at the same time, no Big 12 coach will wonder in mid-February where his team fits in in the national landscape. All they have to do is look at the conference standings.

"If you're an elite team in the Big 12, you're an elite team in the country," Snyder said.

The Missouri coach is as good of an expert on what the conference can do when it comes to preparation. After starting last season fast and getting into the top 10 nationally, the Tigers went into a free-fall to the point where they had to rally just to get into the NCAA Tournament. When Mizzou got in, they certainly knew what it took to win games.

The Tigers won three tournament games -- knocked off Big Ten co-champ Ohio State -- before losing to (yes, you guessed it) Big 12 tournament champion Oklahoma in the West Regional finals. It was a run that happened in part because of the lessons that were learned during the conference season.

This year should be no different in the Big 12. When the NCAA field is announced in March, nobody's going to want to draw a Big 12 team in the early rounds. A team that has won nine conference games and finished fifth or sixth is certainly going to have been tested and should be dangerous.

As frustrating as it is for the mid-level Big 12 teams to see Oklahoma and Kansas hold a tight grip on the top couple of spots, it might be more frustrating to the teams in the league's bottom tier.

Nearly every team in the conference upgraded its talent from a year ago, but what will it mean? Will that lead to more victories? It could, but it's very possible a team will have improved this year, but will win fewer league games.

"This conference is as tough as it's ever been, even just for the rest of us who beat up on each other at the bottom of the league," Colorado coach Ricardo Patton said at Big 12 media day. "Just trying to go from No. 7 to No. 6 is so difficult. There are so many good teams in this league and the top six are really solid. These teams don't allow for slippage, which sometimes you need, and so it makes it toug her for teams that at the bottom to slip into that top tier."

Nebraska's Barry Collier agrees.

"It's very difficult to improve in this league," the Cornhuskers coach said. "We've finished seventh the last two years and that is one step from being in the top-half of the conference. However, we're perfectly aware that it is a long step. There are just so many good programs."

And that's what makes the Big 12 so great, but so frustrating. There's going to be at least one coach who truly believes his team is better than a year ago, but will have a worse record to show for it -- something coaches hate explaining to alumni.

Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune (www.startribune.com) is a regular contributor to ESPN.com.





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