NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- This country music mecca has produced a rich audio encylopedia of heart-rending laments, rotten luck and dire circumstance. But if history is an accurate indicator, this will be the good news capital of the south by Sunday.
Chances are good that somebody will launch a Final Four run right here.
The Southeastern Conference tournament is in town, hoping to once again serve as the launching pad for a memorable March run. The SEC has sent nine teams to the final weekend of play in the past eight seasons -- two in 1994 and '96. Only once since 1992 has there been a Final Four without an SEC team (1999, when Michigan State nipped Kentucky in the Midwest Regional finals).
|  | | Brandon Davis and the Hogs arrive at the SEC tourney on a roll -- again. |
That should impress everyone but the old-money Atlantic Coast Conference -- which, the record shows, is North Carolina and Duke and a whole lot of wishful thinking. Since 1989 the Tar Heels and Blue Devils have combined for an unbelievable 11 Final Four appearances (six Heels, five Devils) and three national titles (two Devils, one Heels).
The rest of the league is batting .000.
In the SEC, meanwhile, four different schools have crashed the quartet the past eight years: Kentucky (four times), Arkansas (twice), Florida (twice) and Mississippi State (once). There also have been three titles (two for the Wildcats, one for the Razorbacks.) There's something to be said for a little variety.
So we come to Nashville in search of a team capable of such a roll.
We find four playing great ball. Whether it's Final Four ball remains to be seen, but the league brings a flush hand to the table.
Start with Florida, which arrives gunning for a No. 1 seed in the South. You can actually mount a case that the Gators are playing the best ball of anyone in America at present, with only a last-second loss in Lexington standing between them and a perfect record since mid-January. And you better believe the selection committee will take into account the fact that Florida's other three league losses all came after what could have been a catastrophic spate of injuries.
The Gators' 1-3 league start, brought on by surgeries to three different starters, nearly put a wait-until-next-year pall on the proceedings. But Billy Donovan outlawed despair in the locker room.
"I wouldn't allow those guys to feel sorry for themselves, but nobody else was going to," Donovan said Sunday, after Florida beat Kentucky to share the league title with the Wildcats. "You can throw a pity party for yourself and say, 'Now that we have all these injuries, we don't have a chance.'
"But we were still in every game. Our first eight SEC games all went down to the buzzer. We were right there. ... So at least there's a glimmer of hope. We knew that if we keep working, we're going to get better."
And healthier. Even with senior forward Brent Wright unavailable after aggravating a foot injury, Florida looks even better than it did a year ago, before launching its Final Four run.
The second-hottest team in the league is Arkansas, which has roared off the bubble by winning its final five games -- including the first visiting victory of the year in Tuscaloosa, a hang-tough upset of Kentucky, and a win that may have doomed Georgia to the NIT. The smallish Hogs might not be true Final Four timber, but they're playing the kind of scrambling, wearying ball that is the trademark of Nolan Richardson's best teams.
Translation: Nobody will be happy to see the Hogs in their bracket. Not here, and not next week in the Big Dance.
Kentucky is the third SEC team to fear. The Wildcats' only losses in their last 11 games were on the road to the Hogs and Gators, continuing a season of quality losses. Six of the nine opponents to beat the 'Cats this year are NCAA locks, and the other three are not out of the picture for at-large berths.
To say nothing of quality wins. The Cats blew out North Carolina in Chapel Hill and Indiana in Louisville, effortlessly swept Tennessee and Georgia, and split with Florida. If any team in America is tournament tough, you're looking at it in blue and white.
Team No. 4 to watch is Mississippi, which after a season of proving itself is still trying to sell the notion that it's a legit heavyweight. That can happen when you have no marquee players, a coach in his mid-30s and play in a gym that seats about 8,500.
But Ole Miss plays strictly big-league defense. The Rebels are tops in the SEC in scoring defense and guarding the 3-point line, and simply will not be beaten without a fierce fight.
Everyone else falls in behind those four, but with a few fascinating angles of their own.
Tennessee is hoping to regain some respect after a late-season collapse took them from No. 4 in the country to needing four wins in four days here. The Volunteers haven't made an impact at the SEC tournament since 1991, and a couple of wins here might do wonders for seeding. Three straight wins to close the regular season beat the alternative, but they came against league dregs LSU, Vanderbilt and South Carolina by a total of 16 points.
Alabama also must salvage its dignity, having lost four straight. Included in that was the aforementioned home loss to Arkansas, a 21-point ripping at Florida and a 35-point humiliation at Mississippi. Clearly, the Crimson Tide has some proving to do after blowing a first-round bye.
Georgia (16-13) needs a couple of wins to add oomph to its No. 1 strength of schedule rating. The Bulldogs have lost six of their last nine.
After that, it's strictly a Grateful Dead thing. Everyone is hoping for a miracle.
Mississippi State has a huge power rating (33) but not much of a record (16-11). Auburn has shown flashes, but no consistency. South Carolina plays everyone close -- but only wins about half the time. LSU and Vanderbilt come in stone cold.
Pitino gives CUSA intriguing subplot
The dirty dozen convenes in Freedom Hall, hoping to salvage something in what has been a lost year for the league.
As it stands today, Cincinnati is the only team confident that it will spend time in Bracketville. If the Bearcats win the tournament, they could very well be the lone representative of the league. The other 11 will have no exCUSA.
"Eleven teams need to win this tournament," said DePaul coach Pat Kennedy.
The only possible exception to that is Southern Mississippi. The Golden Eagles have won 20 games and shared the regular-season league title with Cincy, but their tepid RPI (51) might make an appearance in the final game mandatory to present a compelling argument for inclusion.
Beyond that is a faceless scrum of contenders, all of whom are overshadowed by the scandalously intriguing coaching plot at Louisville.
Denny Crum ended his Hall of Fame career in this tournament on Wednesday night, as the Cardinals lost to UAB in the first round, 74-61. Louisville athletic director Tom Jurich, the man who maneuvered Crum into retirement, will fly this weekend to Florida to meet with none other than Rick Pitino about replacing the legend.
Nothing is done with the famously fickle Pitino until five minutes after it is done. But this one appears as close to done as it can get.
Most of the state is titillated into a tizzy by the possibilities, but two camps are fuming: The hardcore Kentucky constituency and the hardcore Crum supporters.
Both feel insulted. Big Blue fanatics can't believe Pitino could coach their hated rival. Crum loyalists can't believe their guy could be replaced by a man who routinely whipped him and took obvious glee in doing so. (FYI: Pitino and Crum do not get along).
But the big winner in all of this is basketball in the Bluegrass. What better way to resurrect Louisville basketball -- and put a nuclear spark into the somnolent Cards-Cats rivalry -- then by hiring the game's No. 1 Mr. Fix It?
And it would do wonders for the 2002 Conference USA Tournament.
Pat Forde of the Louisville Courier-Journal is a regular contributor to ESPN.com Send this story to a friend | Most sent stories
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