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Thursday, February 13
Updated: February 14, 5:30 PM ET
 
Who'll prove best in Milwaukee?

By Jay Bilas
Special to ESPN.com

Travis Diener
Look for emotions to run high Saturday when Travis Diener and the Golden Eagles welcome Louisville into town.
No. 2 Louisville
at No. 11 Marquette
GAME TIME: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
LAST MEETING: Louisville 84, Marquette 76 (March 7, 2002)
SERIES: Louisville leads, 30-20

There is already some handwringing over Louisville's loss to Saint Louis on Wednesday night -- the Cardinals first setback since their second game of the season.

After 17 straight wins, the loss exposed one thing: if Louisville doesn't play well, it can lose. Well, there's a news flash.

When you parse through the numbers from only the second loss the Cardinals have had all season, the numbers tell the story. Louisville did not have a single steal, did not score more than a handful of points in transition, and gave up a ton of offensive rebounds. Plus, Saint Louis controlled the tempo, and Marvin Stone did not score a single point.

But guess what? Louisville (18-2, 8-1) led by seven points with just under two minutes to go, and by four with just under a minute. After playing poorly, the Cards had to give the game away at the end to lose.

This is a very good basketball team, and it is capable of getting to the Final Four. It is also capable of losing in the second round.

Brackets, anyone?

Louisville Breakdown: The Cardinals may be the most well-conditioned team in the country. Louisville plays 94 feet and likes to press teams fullcourt to speed the tempo of the game. Rick Pitino can throw a few different presses at teams, and wants to get opposing players to speed-dribble upcourt and play faster than they want to play.

The Cardinals make foes turn their backs, reverse dribble and come after them with traps. Louisville forces teams to make plays on the run, which most teams are not used to doing. This leads to turnovers, quick shots, and can take opponents out of their usual rhythm. A counter to Louisville's trapping pressure, is using guards to inbound the ball, so that those guards cannot be trapped immediately, forcing the ball to be handled by non-handlers. Louisville gets into teams' benches, forces mistakes, and wears teams down.

What is often lost when watching Louisville is the fact that it is a very good halfcourt defensive team. The Cardinals have depth and a lot of good athletes who can keep coming at you. Louisville held 10 straight opponents to under 40-percent shooting during this season, and are holding opponents to 39-percent shooting on the year.

On the offensive end, Louisville is a good shooting team and very opportunistic. The Cardinals can shoot the ball from several positions, and have a post player who has to be doubled in Stone. Louisville sets a lot of high screens for Reece Gaines, runs some on-ball screens, and a couple of New Jersey or Princeton sets. Louisville has proven to be a second-half team. In other words, Louisville has faced a lot of first-half deficits that have been overcome with strong second-half performances.

Gaines is the Cardinals' best and most productive player. He is a leader who will not let his team lose. Gaines is a complete player, leading the Cards in scoring, assists and steals. Gaines had 28 points against Saint Louis, almost half of Louisville's total, and made several big plays to put the Cardinals in a position to win.

Stone scores efficiently in the post, to the point where he must be doubled. But he is also a very good passer who can kick out to open shooters. Stone has great hands, can run the floor and has a good jump hook and a mid-range jumper.

Francisco Garcia and Taquan Dean are both very good shooters who are capable of big games. Garcia is an outstanding defender and very smart player. Ellis Myles is a tough rebounder and good passer who outworks people. Erik Brown is a streaky shooter who can guard his man at all times, while Kendall Dartez is a 6-8 athlete who is beginning to come on as a scorer and defender.

Marquette Outlook: Tom Crean has done a remarkable job with the Marquette program, turning it into a national contender in four short years. The Golden Eagles (18-3, 9-1) are tough-minded and play hard together.

Marquette is, and has been under Crean, a solid halfcourt defensive team that plays great helpside defense. The Golden Eagles pressure the ball, stay in front, and give helpside support on the elbow and the block to take away penetration. Marquette is also a very good rebounding team.

If there is one thing Marquette will take into Saturday's game, it is a great scouting report on Louisville. Crean and his staff give the players a gameplan, with specific things to take away and to do, and the Golden Eagles are smart enough and disciplined enough to do it under stress. Look for Marquette to take away the things Louisville wants to do. It has held opponents to just 40-percent shooting on the season, and have held eight of its last 10 opponents under 70 points -- all wins.

The difference in Marquette this season is its offensive production. The Golden Eagles average just under 80 points per game, and can score from several different positions on the floor. Marquette runs a controlled, numbered break, several different sets plays with multiple options, including a lot of screen and roll, staggers and quick post-ups.

The key performer for Marquette is Dwyane Wade, who is one of the best and most complete players in the country. Wade is a slasher who can drive and create for himself or others, and he can score on the move. Wade is explosive off the dribble, but very versatile. He loves to drive middle, spin and he can pitch it or pull-up. Wade leads Conference USA in scoring at over 21 points per game, and has 13 games of 20 or more points.

Wade is also very active on the defensive end, getting steals and deflections, and he is a very hard worker. He leads the team in steals, is second on the team in assists and shooting accuracy (53 percent FGs).

Robert Jackson, a transfer from Mississippi State, has good size, is very strong and is an excellent low-post presence. Jackson can hit his mid-range shot and face up, and can be a dominant rebounder and efficient interior scorer. Jackson is second on the team in scoring at 16 points per game, and leads the team in rebounding at 7.4 rpg. He shoots 57 percent from the field, good for second in Conference USA.

Travis Diener runs the point, and is a very steady player. Diener is tough, smart and can really shoot it, spotting up or off the bounce. Diener uses his dribble well, is a pesky defender, and is unafraid to stick his nose in the fray.

Scott Merritt is having a terrific year. He is a capable shooter, post-up player and active defender. Todd Townsend is a good athlete and Steve Novak can really shoot it from range.

Key Matchup: Marvin Stone vs. Robert Jackson






Stone
Louisville
Of course, Wade and Gaines will be important factors in this game, but Stone is coming off of a bagel against Saint Louis, which is as far under his average of 13 points per game. Jackson has been terrific this season. He had 19 points and 11 rebounds in the win over Wake Forest. Jackson knows Stone from the SEC. Jackson is the more accomplished player. He just hasn't gotten the same national ink. Both have had great impacts on their teams and the battle between the two should be a good one. One that can certainly determine the outcome.





Jackson
Marquette

Key Stat
Rebounding and Turnovers
Marquette is a solid rebounding team. In this game, the team that controls the glass will have the inside track toward winning. If Marquette can grab defensive rebounds, Louisville will not be able to get into its press, will be less likely to speed up the Golden Eagles. Marquette does not turn the ball over much, while Louisville feeds off of turnovers. The key for Marquette will be to attack the pressure to score, but to know when to pull it out and make Louisville guard them in the halfcourt.

What to Watch For
How Well Louisville's Press Affects Marquette
Watch how Marquette handles the press by Louisville, and think about how you would prepare to handle the press if you were coaching. Would you beat the press with the pass or the dribble? What would you tell your team about attacking the press, like when to look to score and when to pull it out and run halfcourt offense? Also, watch what each coach runs out of timeouts. Both are excellent strategists, and how each team executes on out of bounds plays, especially out of timeouts, could make a difference. Finally, check out the Marquette crowd. Marquette has worked hard to get its program back to elite status, and the atmosphere will be big time. I know Crean will worry about managing the distractions, but Marquette should enjoy the ride. This is the kind of game both programs have been building toward, and this is the reason you play and practice so hard.








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