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Sunday, January 28, 2001
Short stay for Austin Peay
By Ron Buck
ESPN.com
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Call it the curse of the Cinderella Watch. Nobody is safe.
Not Toledo. Not South Florida. Not Baylor. Certainly, not little Austin Peay.
Half of our potential Cinderellas failed to post a victory last week, each going 0-2 and giving us plenty of reason to doubt their validity come March. But since it's only January, we're willing to give a couple another week to prove us right.
Just not everyone.
Sorry, Baylor. We just don't see a turnaround coming anytime soon in the Big 12. But the undefeated start was fun while it lasted. Think NIT.
And as for Austin Peay, well, the public didn't have any faith in you. At least 93.9 percent of 'em. Even before the Governors dropped games at Tennessee Martin and home to Tennessee Tech, the minds of over 25,000 voters had been swayed against Austin Peay.
If you want to see the final results from last week's poll, you can find it in the user feedback from last week's Cinderella Watch. And, as always, we want your thoughts, compliments or gripes about this week's Watch. Click here to submit an e-mail. We'll post the best user responses with each week's Cinderella Watch.
But not all is lost on the Watch. Boston College isn't among the candidates this week, but that doesn't mean the Eagles did anything wrong (if you consider losing at Duke by 22 acceptable). Like Fresno State last week, BC has been promoted to another ESPN.com list -- the Sweet 16.
Boston College's spot at No. 15 on the latest RPI rankings is just too good for the Watch. Sure, they lost to the Dukies. But who doesn't these days.
BC is 4-1 in the Big East and represented at Cameron. Now, should Troy Bell and company slip up in the coming weeks, we can always slip the glass slipper back on the Eagles. Stay tuned.
So, with three teams leaving the Watch, it left three spots to fill. Joining the fray this week are Creighton, Xavier and UC Irvine. Yes, a group of Anteaters are primping out West for the Dance.
For those still new to the Watch, here is how it works. ESPN.com picks eight teams each week leading up to the NCAA Tournament. Teams can move off the Watch for three reasons:
1. Promotion: The team moves from being a Cinderella story to just another guest invited to the Big Dance.
2. Demotion: The team plays so poorly its status of making the tourney is in jeopardy. You can't be a Cinderella if you don't go to the dance.
3. The poll: In the spirit of democracy, the lowest vote-getter each week will be removed from the Watch, no questions asked.
There is the latest list of teams we're watching. The RPI rankings are from Jan. 20, while team records are through Sunday, Jan. 21.
Yes, the Bluejays have three losses in the Missouri Valley Conference. And no, they didn't post the highest-of-profile wins out of conference. But we can't ignore that strength of schedule (34th in the country) any longer. An at-large bid is still possible, but not a guarantee in a MVC that's ranked 12th, but has teams beating up on each other as much as the MAC. So winning the MVC postseason tourney is foremost on the Jays' mind. Thus far, Creighton is 8-0 at home, and it's still the team to beat in the MVC. Creighton will lean of the MVC's best defense and Kyle Korver and company's 3-point shooting to make a run at the regular and postseason titles.
This was St. Joe's (Pa.) spot until the Musketeers took care of business at home against the Hawks. Xavier has quietly continued to build on its victory over Cincinnati on Dec. 14, winning eight of nine since. It had no business losing to UMass. With the best best big man in the A-10 to lean on -- David West (17.4 ppg, 10.7 rpg) -- don't expect the Musketeers to miss out on the NCAAs this season. In fact, they could be the next to outgrow the Watch completely.
Pat Douglass' boys are climbing in the Big West at a quicker rate then 747s at John Wayne International Airport. The flight pattern started back on Dec. 2 when the Anteaters took down Cal. Two weeks later, they gave the boys in Pauley a big scare. Now, the boys from Orange County have already eclipsed last year's win total. But, come on, we're talking UC Irvine, the same Irvine that won a single game in '96-97 and posted just 28 victories over the past three seasons. Now we're talking NCAAs? Sure, with Jerry Green (17.5 ppg; 3.3 apg) running the show and two 7-footers down low, Irvine is worth watching.
This is why MAC fans are always left complaining come March. Toledo was riding along with a 14-game conference winning streak and then winds up losing twice in one week -- to Ball State (166th RPI) and Northern Illinois (254th). It's a Catch-22, really. The MAC is ranked ninth among conferences because of its depth, yet knocks its own teams out of at-large bids because of its depth. Toledo is still on the committee's radar if it doesn't wind up with the MAC title to lean on. But these losses won't look good.
Careful, Bulls. Memphis -- not to mention Southern Mississippi -- is looking at this spot with a gleam in its eye. Last week was suppose to be South Florida's chance to make a national statement. Instead, the Bulls drop a pair on the road. What will hurt more? The loss at Marquette, or blowing a chance to beat a Cal team ranked 21st in the RPI? Just another reason C-USA will be fortunate to receive three bids to the Big Dance.
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UTAH STATE
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 Record
16-2 Overall
5-0 Big West
RPI
No. 44
Marquee Win
Utah, 58-57
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Finally, some good news. The Aggies ran their win streak to 10 straight with two wins (OK, so what if one was a 30-point blowout of UC Riverside). Utah State deserved a break after the work its put in over the past month. With its RPI shrinking, the Aggies may have company atop the Big West, but don't figure to have any peers in the conference. Trip to Irvine could be interesting on Jan. 31.
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GEORGIA STATE
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Record
15-3 Overall
6-2 TAAC
RPI
No. 56
Marquee Win
Georgia, 91-79
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Every team is going to have a night like the Panthers endured at Troy State. How else can you explain a 20-point first half and night of 30-percent shooting. Panthers are the class of the TAAC and Lefty's gang will shoot straight on most nights. Even with loss, its win over Georgia is looking better and better with each Bulldogs' upset in the SEC. In fact, the state may send three teams to the tourney if Tech and Dawgs can keep nipping at the heels of the ACC and SEC big boys.
Really need to look at the Cougars' losses to appreciate where they could be. Only two losses have come to Georgetown in Honolulu and in UNC's holiday tourney. The two-point loss to Heels came during recent streak of 13 wins in past 14 outings. Keeps flirting with conference loss, however. Latest example came at home against woeful Wofford (162nd RPI) in a 64-62 victory.
Ron Buck is the college basketball editor at ESPN.com.
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ALSO SEE
Cinderella Watch: Jan. 14
Cinderella Watch: Jan. 8
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