The Big East finds itself caught in a numbers game. And we aren't just talking about numbers followed by lots of zeros.

With Miami and Virginia Tech officially accepting the ACC's invitation to join its conference as soon as the 2004-05 season, the Big East is down to six football-playing members. With Temple leaving and Connecticut scheduled to arrive full-time on the gridiron in 2005, it's a number that won't change from within. And it leaves the conference created for basketball searching for two more schools with viable Division I football programs before it can start worrying about its basketball traditions.

In case you haven't heard, Louisville will likely be the Big East's first target. But the Cardinals won't be the last.

Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese said Monday that the conference hasn't held formal conversations with any schools, Louisville included, outside the existing members. Tranghese said he did talk to Conference USA commissioner Britton Banowski and Atlantic 10 commissioner Linda Bruno about expansion, but refused to give specifics about any teams that may be involved.

	Big East's new football look?
	2003	2004	2005
	Miami	Syracuse	Syracuse
	VaTech	Boston College	Boston College
	Syracuse	Pitt	Pitt
	Boston College	Rutgers	Rutgers
	Pitt	West Virginia	West Virginia
	Rutgers	Temple*	UConn
	West Virginia	UConn**	Louisville
	Temple	Louisville***	Ct. Fla./So. Fla./Cincy****
	*Leaving Big East after '04 season **Might join FB alignment year early ***Might become eighth school ****Might also be recruited

Multiple sources within college athletics said the Big East will try to stay above board in expansion discussions, but the Big East doesn't have anything to trade if it does take a team or two from Conference USA, the A-10 or any other conference. So, any attempt to be up front could become moot, and messy.

Sources at Louisville say the Cardinals will go to the Big East when called, which could be as early as the 2004-05 season when Virginia Tech and Miami depart for the ACC. Louisville would certainly be a fit in football with the likes of Connecticut (which could be asked to join the Big East fulltime a year earlier than its target date of 2005), Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse and Rutgers. But what makes Louisville even more attractive is its basketball team, which is coached by Rick Pitino, a name Northeast fans are quite familiar with from his days as a coach of Providence and in the NBA with the Knicks and Celtics.

The departures of Miami and Virginia Tech leaves the Big East with 12 existing members in 2004-05. But only six -- Temple is slated to play its final Big East season in '04-05 -- play Division I football. Again, Connecticut could be the seventh football member if the Huskies speed up their football plans, while Louisville would be the eighth member in such a scenario. But the Big East must prepare for Temple's departure, even if the Big East is contractually included in the Bowl Championship Series for the next three seasons.

Sources told ESPN.com that the Big East would also look at both South Florida and Cincinnati out of Conference USA, along with Central Florida, which plays football in the MAC and basketball in the Atlantic Sun. MAC officials said Central Florida has until Aug. 1 to give a two-year notice and pay its $200,000 exit fee. The figure doubles if Central Florida gives less than two years notice.

"We have an idea of how we want to go and I don't want to blindside people and neither do our presidents," Tranghese said. "We will share our decision. Our first step was to take a deep breath. But there is a sense of urgency. Our schools have been through a lot and they're anxious to get started."

Louisville faces a $500,000 exit fee from Conference USA if it gives the conference less than two years notice. There is also a clause in the exit fee that forces a school to pay any lost revenue if C-USA's television contract is adjusted following its departure. But Louisville is expected to fight the clause.

Adding more teams to create the 16-team federation created by Big East founder Dave Gavitt wasn't something Tranghese seemed too keen on Monday. He said 16 schools might be unmanageable. As a result, a potential plan to add Marquette out of Conference USA and Xavier out of the Atlantic 10 could be shelved for the immediate future.

But there is a sense within the Big East that the five non-Division I football schools in the Big East (Villanova, Seton Hall, St. John's, Georgetown, Providence) and Notre Dame (an independent in football) won't want to be a minority within the conference. If the league must add schools to keep the football cash rolling in, why do it at the expense of the basketball-playing schools?

"I had a nervous breakdown managing 14,'' Tranghese said. "The more numbers you have is always harder. I don't know if we're going to get there (to Gavitt's plan). Sixteen is a lot of teams."

Jeffrey Mishkin, the attorney for the five remaining Big East football teams who weren't part of the original ACC expansion, said the lawsuit against the ACC and Miami would have no effect on the Big East adding replacements. He said the lawsuit would continue with depositions expected within the next two weeks.

Tranghese made it clear that he wouldn't punish Miami and Virginia Tech in 2003-04 by denying either the right to play in the the 2004 Big East tournament. Such wasn't the case in the Colonial Athletic Association when Richmond was prevented from playing in the conference's 2002 postseason tournament when it had agreed to move to the A-10.

"I wouldn't want to punish those players," Tranghese said. Tranghese also added that only Boston College and Syracuse could guarantee that neither would bolt for the ACC in the future. He said there could be some future talks about raising the exit fee to more than $1 million for a one-year notice. As for the ACC, it doesn't have to go to 12 schools -- although that seems to be the perception within college athletics.

The NCAA is expected to reverse a rule that states a conference must have 12 members for a football championship game. The Big 12 and SEC each have 12 members and play a title game between two division winners. Neither, however, is expected to fight the rule because of the disadvantage that their teams face by having to play an extra game before a BCS game. If the ACC receives a waiver, allowing it to hold a title game with less than 12 members, expect the Big Ten (11 members) and the Pac-10 to possibly follow its lead.

For now, the ACC will go with a one-division setup in 2004-05 in basketball with the conference likely playing 16 league games. In order to keep the traditional home-and-home series alive in the ACC, teams may not play other teams within the ACC in some years. Or, the conference could have each team play once (10 games) plus three teams twice to make up the 16-game conference schedule.

Meanwhile, as soon as Louisville leaves Conference USA, the WAC is expected to formally invite Tulane, TCU and Houston.

But, first things first. And that's figuring out the magic numbers to finally settle the Big East/ACC saga. And, right now, neither 11 or 12 works for both.

Andy Katz is a senior writer at ESPN.com.