| | The Bulls already are planning for next summer.
|  | | The Raptors aren't about to let Vince Carter test the market next summer. |
So are the Rockets. And the Pistons. Maybe the Wizards, too.
It is now standard operating procedure in the NBA. If you don't have cap room, you're trying to get it. Because of the (still) huge, guaranteed contracts in the NBA, it is not something that occurs every year. Teams plan years in advance for that one offseason when they'll have more cap space than just about everyone else. A well-managed club gets a shot every five or six years.
Many of today's championship contenders assembled their rosters in the boistrous Summer of '96, when the mother lode of free agents were available.
The Heat signed Alonzo Mourning to a new contract worth $100-plus million, added Tim Hardaway and P.J. Brown for $15 and $36 million, respectively, and
tried to sign Juwan Howard from Washington for $100.8 million -- until the Commish hit Riles upside the head with his cap circumvention stick.
That same summer, the Knicks reloaded, trading for Larry Johnson's $84 million contract and signing Allan Houston and Chris Childs for $56 and $24 million.
The Sonics, unwittingly, destroyed their then-promising team by giving Jim McIlvaine $33 million, irking star forward Shawn Kemp and starting his slide. And Jerry West gambled that summer and won, moving half of his team
to have enough cap space to sign Shaquille O'Neal.
(Aside No. 1: One heretofore unmentioned impact of West's retirement from the Lakers: it ends an advantage Los Angeles has had for years in enticing players because of West's close friendship with uber-agent Arn Tellem. Tellem represents Lakers Kobe Bryant and Travis Knight and was always trying to figure out a way to get another client, Tracy McGrady, to Tinseltown. Other GMs around the league have been grumbling about the relationship for years.)
Last summer, the Suns made their move, bringing in Penny Hardaway and Tom Gugliotta. And, of course, this offseason was Orlando's turn, with Grant Hill and McGrady. (It was supposed to be Chicago's summer, too, but, well, you know ...)
So, the aforementioned Bulls, Spurs, Rockets, etc., are figuring that the Summer of 2001 will be their chance to get fat.
They might want to think again.
The salary cap likely will go up by a significant amount next year. Teams are getting the word already that it'll be somewhere around $42 million, up $6.5 million from its current $35.5 million. That would be a big bump up after this year's paltry $1.5 million increase. The problem is, there won't be that many quality free agents on which to spend the extra bucks. And there might not be any for a long time. That's a byproduct of the new collective bargaining agreement.
The 1998 draft class is eligible for free agency next summer, and it's an impressive group. Vince Carter. Jason Williams. Dirk Nowitzki. Paul Pierce. Larry Hughes. Mike Bibby. Raef LaFrentz. Solid role players like Bonzi
Wells, Michael Dickerson, Matt Harpring. Would a team with room want to take a flyer on still-raw (and still 7-foot-1) center Michael Olowokandi?
The problem is, they're not really available. First, their current teams have until Oct. 31 to exercise an option to keep the player for a fourth season -- in other words, through the 2001-2002 season. Do you think the Raptors won't make a tender to Carter, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent?
(Aside No. 2: the Raptors must still be hearing about Canadian taxation questions from player agents. How else to explain what appears to be a mass mailing to media outlets, including yours truly, touting Toronto's plans to reduce tax rates for its U.S. players? GM Glen Grunwald touts Chamber of Commerce-esque statistics for Toronto (rated fourth-best city to live in North America! ranked the most diverse city in the world by the United Nations!) and "a stable, committed ownership group (and) one of the greatest coaches in league history" ...)
Second, after these players' fourth seasons, their current clubs can make qualifying offers to them, basically rendering them restricted free agents. That means their current teams have the right to match any offers given them by other teams. And no team is going to waste precious time in July waiting 15 days for someone that they know is returning to his current squad.
So scratch them. And scratch all the young players from the following year's draft class, like Steve Francis, Elton Brand, Lamar Odom, Shawn
Marion, Andre Miller, etc. And all the young players from this past June's draft, like Kenyon Martin and Stromile Swift and Marcus Fizer. Get the picture? Young stars from this point on are more likely than not to stay where they are, at least for several seasons. They'll never become
unrestricted free agents.
Without them, the free-agent list for the next couple of years is a little light. The prize veteran catch next summer is Sacramento's Chris Webber, who has made it abundantly clear that there are any number of places
he'd rather be. Dikembe Mutombo will be available. So will Michael Finley
and Allan Houston, assuming they opts out of their current deals. John
Stockton will be a free agent, but who believes he'd ever leave Utah?
The rest are good but not great players: Jamal Mashburn, Christian Laettner,
Clarence Weatherspoon, Aaron McKie. And you will have your
pick of ancient pivotmen: Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and Arvydas Sabonis.
It's not a sterling group. And there's not even a certainty that the likes of Finley and Houston will be there. With the new cap rules limiting maximum salaries, opting out of current deals means, in some cases, only a moderate raise for new free agents.
In the summer of 2002, Rodney Rogers and Shandon Anderson head a list
that includes Rod Strickland, Bryon Russell, Jerome Williams, Voshon Lenard,
Mookie Blaylock, Donyell Marshall, Travis Best, Chris Childs and Charles
Oakley. Good players, yes. Difference makers, no.
It is the summer of 2003 that you should circle if your favorite team currently, uh, stinks. That is the offseason you want to have cap room. Among
the gems will be Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, Jason Kidd, Jermaine O'Neal,
Karl Malone, Juwan Howard, P.J. Brown, Antonio Davis, Dale Davis, Sam Cassell, Steve Smith, Scottie Pippen, Cliff Robinson, Tyrone Hill, Darrell Armstrong, Reggie Miller, Mitch Richmond and Elden Campbell.
Shaq is currently on that 2003 free-agent list, but everyone expects him to sign an extention with the Lakers soon that will take him through the 2005-06 season at least.
Waiting three years is not a winning marketing strategy. It tends to get coaches fired and destroy season ticket bases. But this is the reality of the collective bargaining agreement. David Stern and the owners wanted stability, and they're going to get it. Even if that dooms your currently
mediocre or worse team for years.
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