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| TODAY: Monday, May 15 | ||||||||||
| Toronto Blue Jays Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||
Record: 84-78, 12th overall Payroll: $48.8 million, 14th overall Runs scored: 883, 5th in AL Runs allowed: 862, 9th in AL What went right? Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado both broke the 40-homer, 100-RBI barrier. Second baseman Homer Bush hit .320, surprising every stathead in the universe. Shannon Stewart hit .304 with 37 steals. Tony Batista slammed 26 homers in 98 games after coming over from Arizona to fill the gap left by the injured Alex Gonzalez. Ancient Tony Fernandez hit .328 with 41 doubles and 77 walks. Rookie closer Billy Koch saved 31 games. What went wrong? The rotation was disappointing beyond rookie Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter. Joey Hamilton's sore shoulder resulted in a 6.52 ERA, while Pat Hentgen, David Wells, and Kelvim Escobar all had their share of rough outings. Jose Cruz Jr. continued to struggle and will have to hold off rookie Vernon Wells in 2000. Concerns about money forced the trade of Green to Los Angeles after the season ended. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Trading Dan Plesac to Arizona for Tony Batista and John Frascatore. Batista was excellent covering for the injured Gonzalez, while Frascatore also did good work out of the bullpen. 2. Keeping Joey Hamilton in the rotation most of the year despite his sore shoulder. It was obvious that Hamilton was laboring, but the Jays kept running him out there. He did have several effective games, but he also got plastered too frequently. 3. Installing rookie Billy Koch as the closer. This worked better than expected. On the other hand, it helped move Kelvim Escobar to the rotation, where he was very erratic. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. What sort of performance can be expected from Raul Mondesi, and will he cause distractions in the clubhouse? 2. Who replaces Pat Hentgen in the rotation? Are Hamilton and the sore-elbowed Chris Carpenter fully healthy? 3. Will the Jays play Batista at third and Gonzalez at shortstop, as currently expected? Or will Gonzalez be traded, keeping Batista at shortstop and opening a hole at third base? Can expect to play better Hamilton, if healthy. Escobar is a tremendously talented young pitcher, and could put it together at any time. Cruz Junior continues to show good command of the strike zone, giving hope that the rest of his hitting will follow. Mondesi still has a ton of talent, if he chooses to use it. The Skydome's better hitting environment compared to Dodger Stadium should help him. Can expect to play worse If Homer Bush hits .320 again, his lack of walks isn't a severe problem. But if he hits .280, his on-base percentage will be low enough to hurt the top of the order. Darrin Fletcher probably had his career year in 1999. Roy Halladay will have to improve on his unsightly 82/79 K/BB ratio if he wants to have a sub-4.00 ERA again. David Wells turns 37 in May and is in the twilight of his career. Projected lineup LF Shannon Stewart 2B Homer Bush RF Raul Mondesi 1B Carlos Delgado 3B Tony Batista DH David Segui C Darrin Fletcher CF Jose Cruz Jr. SS Alex Gonzalez Rotation/Closer David Wells Chris Carpenter Kelvim Escobar Roy Halladay Joey Hamilton Billy Koch A closer look The word from Toronto is that the Blue Jays are going to make a run for the wild card. These days, every team that wins 84 games in a season thinks they have a shot for the wild card the following year. Toronto does have a chance. But have they actually improved themselves?
The Jays ranked fifth in the league in runs scored last year, a respectable showing, but ninth in runs allowed. Obviously, the thing to do is try to improve the pitching without hurting the hitting attack. Have they done this? Catching: 1999: Darrin Fletcher. 2000: Fletcher. Fletcher set career-marks in batting average, on-base percentage, and home runs last year. He turns 34 in October, and it is unlikely he will improve on those numbers. Expect a MILD DECLINE. First Base: 1999: Carlos Delgado. 2000: Delgado He turns 28 in June, and should continue to beat the tar out of the ball. Expect a MILD IMPROVEMENT in his numbers. Second Base: 1999: Homer Bush. 2000: Bush. No stathead worth his calculator, including this one, thought Bush would hit as well as he did last year. Given his inconsistent minor league record and the fact that he still won't take a walk, I expect a MILD DECLINE. But I doubt he will fall on his face.
Third Base: 1999: Tony Fernandez. 2000: Tony Batista. This assumes that Gonzalez is healthy and is not traded, as is sometimes rumored. Gonzalez was hitting .292 last year before he got hurt, and some people think he'll maintain that production. He won't hit for as much power as Batista did last year, but would be similar otherwise. Expect a MILD DECLINE. Left Field: 1999: Shannon Stewart. 2000: Stewart. I love this guy, and I think he'll just get better and better. Turns 26 in February. Expect a MILD IMPROVEMENT in 2000 with a big breakout in 2001 or 2002. Center Field: 1999: Jose Cruz Jr. 2000: Cruz Jr. Cruz gets a lot of heat because he doesn't hit for average. But he maintains a decent on-base percentage and hit .283 after the All-Star break last year. Expect a MILD IMPROVEMENT in 2000. Right Field: 1999: Shawn Green. 2000: Raul Mondesi. Green was awesome last year. It's hard to see how Mondesi could actually be better than Green was, even with the switch in leagues. Mondesi should be good, but I doubt he'll do what Green did in 1999. MILD DECLINE. Designated Hitter: 1999: A bunch of guys who weren't very good. 2000: David Segui. Toronto DHs hit .249 with a .306 OBP and a .411 SLG last year. Segui should be a lot better than that, even if he just matches his career numbers (.285, .352, .435). Expect a SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT. Offense Results: SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT: Designated Hitter, Third Base. MILD IMPROVEMENT: Center Field, Left Field, First Base. MILD DECLINE: Shortstop, Second Base, Catcher, Right Field. SIGNIFICANT DECLINE: none. None of the positions will be significantly worse than last year, and while some mild declines should be expected, this is balanced by expected improvement at other positions. All in all, the hitting attack should be about the same or a little better. What about the pitching? Here's the problem. Pitching is notoriously unpredictable, and the Jays haven't done anything to improve the staff. With the current cast, one can build a scenario where the Jays' pitching improves substantially. Hamilton is healthy, Carpenter, Halladay and Escobar turn things up a notch, etc. But it is also possible to build a scenario where everything collapses. Hamilton's shoulder shreds; Carpenter and Escobar get hurt, Halladay posts a 6.00 ERA, etc. The Jays haven't brought in a replacement for the traded Pat Hentgen yet, which increases the pressure on everyone. The hitting should be the same or slightly better. So it all boils down to the pitching, and at this point Toronto has done little to directly address that problem. Expect another season in the 84-86 win range. John Sickels is the author of the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. | ALSO SEE Blue Jays minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | |||||||||
