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| | Wednesday, April 19 St. Louis Cardinals | ||||||||||
| By Rob Neyer ESPN.com
Record: 75-86, 18th overall (tie) Payroll: $46.3 million, 16th overall Runs scored: 809, 10th in NL Runs allowed: 838, 10th in NL What went right? Mark McGwire cracked his first triple since 1988. Oh, and he also topped the National League with 65 home runs and 147 RBI, and stayed almost completely healthy for the third season in a row. Third baseman Fernando Tatis justified the 1998 trade for him, as he went from 11 homers and 58 RBI in 1998 to 34 homers and 107 RBI in 1999. What went wrong? Nearly everything else. Aside from the steady Ray Lankford, the outfield was awful, and even Lankford missed significant time with injuries. Kent Bottenfield was the ace of the pitching staff, which tells you everything you need to know about the rotation. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Signing Eric Davis to a free-agent deal. After two amazing seasons in Baltimore, Davis was counted on for some much-needed outfield punch. Instead, he was rarely able to play and displayed no power when he did play. Davis' only real contribution came on June 25, when he saved Jose Jimenez' no-hitter with a pair of diving catches. 2. Allowing Willie McGee to play in 132 games. Yes, he's been around forever, and he's fun to watch if you don't care who wins. But McGee just might have been the worst player in the National League, and he was allowed nearly 300 plate appearances. At season's end, McGee's hitting stats were spotted somewhere south of ReyOrdonezLand, and when he wasn't grounding out or striking out, he was committing one baserunning gaffe or another. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. Will the real J.D. Drew (please) stand up? 2. Will oft-injured starters Matt Morris and/or Alan Benes contribute anything at all? 3. Is Dave Veres, newly arrived from Colorado, really a major league closer? Can expect to play better: Players as good as J.D. Drew come around eventually, and 2000 might be his Rookie of the Year year, if a year too late. The scary thing for the Cardinals, who had trouble scoring runs last year, is that Drew is the only good candidate for improvement, although whoever's in right field should be a major improvement over the guys who were there last year. Can expect to play worse Fernando Tatis was probably a bit over his head last year, and we keep thinking Mark McGwire is due for a long stint on the disabled list. Projected lineup 2B Fernando Vina SS Edgar Renteria 1B Mark McGwire LF Ray Lankford 3B Fernando Tatis CF J.D. Drew RF Eric Davis/Joe McEwing C Eli Marrero Rotation/Closer Kent Bottenfield Andy Benes Pat Hentgen Darryl Kile Rick Ankiel Dave Veres
A closer look In early November, the Cardinals traded for a well-paid starting pitcher who, over the last two seasons, is 21-30 with a 5.84 ERA ... and it might be a step in the right direction. You see, this particular starting pitcher is 31-year-old right-hander Darryl Kile, he of the killer curveball and the sometimes-impressive stats when he pitched in Houston. Of late, unfortunately, Kile has plied his trade in the Mile High City, where that wonderful yakker didn't yak nearly enough. Hence, the ugly ERA. But Kile does have talent, and he also possesses the singular virtue of maturity. As does Pat Hentgen, acquired from the Blue Jays. Going back to their days in Oakland, manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have had success with starters in their early 30s, and last season they did it again with Kent Bottenfield. But it's been a different story with young starters (take note, Rick Ankiel). La Russa managed the Athletics for nine full seasons, and it might reasonably be said that in those nine seasons, only one starting pitcher younger than 26 had what might be described as a statistically impressive season. In 1988, rookie right-hander Todd Burns, 24 years old when he arrived in the majors, went 8-2 with 3.16 ERA in 17 games, 14 of them starts. Everyone was so impressed that Burns spent the rest of his short career in the bullpen. A few others were given extended shots at the rotation -- Jose Rijo, Joe Slusarski and Todd Van Poppel come to mind -- and all were found wanting, as Rijo developed only after a trade to Cincinnati. There were also a few quick flame-outs, guys like Kirk Dressendorfer, Steve Karsay and Miguel Jimenez. None lasted long, whether because of injuries or simple ineffectiveness. La Russa has enjoyed greater success with young pitchers since moving to St. Louis in 1996. Sort of. In La Russa's first season, 24-year-old Alan Benes pitched fairly well, and then he broke out in 1997 with a fantastic 2.89 ERA. He's pitched the grand total of two innings since then. Also in 1997, rookie Matt Morris looked like the second coming of Jim Palmer, going 12-9 with a 3.19 ERA. And he pitched even better in 1998 ... until a shoulder injury knocked him out. He didn't pitch at all in 1999, and both Morris and Benes remain question marks entering the 2000 season. And finally, there's the once-promising Manny Aybar and Jose Jimenez, neither of whom developed as starters and wound up getting sent to Colorado in the Kile trade. It's an amazing thing when you think about it. Tony La Russa, widely considered one of the top two or three managers of the last 20 years, has never developed a young pitcher into a quality, durable starter. Does this mean that he can't? Well, the fact is that in Oakland, he -- or if you prefer, the organization as a whole -- never really tried. They went with veteran pitchers, and for a lot of years that worked quite well. But his record in St. Louis is simply awful, with each of his young charges either pitching poorly or spending far too much time in doctors' waiting rooms. So perhaps it's time to simply give up, and rely on veteran starters. Thus, the acquisitions of Kile and Hentgen may be a positive step. The Houston Astros are obviously the class of the National League Central. But should they falter, the Cardinals are in a group with the Reds and Pirates, teams that have a chance at 90 victories and a postseason berth. But it will take a major improvement in the pitching, the "real" J.D. Drew, and another productive (read: healthy) season from McGwire. Rob Neyer is a staff writer at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Cardinals minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | ||||||||||
