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| TODAY: Monday, May 15 | ||||||||||
| Seattle Mariners ESPN.com | ||||||||||
Record: 79-83, 13th overall Payroll: $45.4 million, 18th overall Runs scored: 859, 6th in AL Runs allowed: 905, 12th in AL What went right? Rookie starters Freddy Garcia and John Halama finished ninth and 12th in the AL in ERA, joining Jamie Moyer to give Seattle three solid starting pitchers. Ken Griffey Jr. played 160 games, led the AL with 48 HRs and drove in 134 runs. Alex Rodriguez hit 42 HRs in 129 games. Edgar Martinez remained one of baseball's most underrated hitters, batting .337 and leading the league with a .447 on-base percentage. David Bell, forced into a starting role, played well at second base. The club's new stadium, Safeco Field, opened at the All-Star break. What went wrong? Jeff Fassero was one of the league's worst starting pitchers, going 4-14 with a 7.38 ERA before getting traded to Texas. Carlos Guillen, the starter at second base, tore up his knee in the season's first week. Rodriguez spent a month on the DL. Jay Buhner suffered through another injury-plagued campaign. Brian Hunter's miserable season gave the Mariners the worst leadoff OBP in baseball -- by far. Players griped about the hitting conditions at Safeco. Griffey asked for a trade following the season. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Going with the young pitchers. Lou Piniella showed confidence in his young arms, using three rookies (Garcia, Halama and Gil Meche) in the rotation for much of the season. However, he rode the 22-year-old Garcia extremely hard, especially in September when the Mariners were long out of the pennant race. 2. Sticking too long with Fassero. Piniella has always shown great loyalty to his veterans, but rolling out Fassero for 24 starts doomed the team's playoff hopes. 3. Keeping Hunter in the leadoff spot. Acquired in April, Hunter sported a terrible .280 on-base percentage, worst of any leadoff hitter in baseball. Nonetheless, 466 of his 539 at-bats came in the leadoff spot. How many runs would Griffey have knocked in with a good leadoff guy in front of him? Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. Not that Ken Griffey Jr. has been traded, will the Mariner outfield provide enough power for a playoff team? 2. How will the bullpen perform? Jose Mesa saved 33 of 38 chances, but only seven of those saves protected a one-run lead. Does Kazuhiro Sasaki, Japan's career saves leader, have any mileage left on his arm after having elbow surgery last season? 3. Who will hit in the first two spots in the order? Mark McLemore and Stan Javier are both better at getting on base than Brian Hunter or David Bell, but aren't guaranteed starting spots. Newcomer Mike Cameron may prove the best option at leadoff, despite his high number of strikeouts. Can expect to play better A miserable September slump (21-for-115, .183) knocked Alex Rodriguez's average down to .285. He's capable of hitting better than that without losing his power. Other than that, Seattle's chances of improvement depend mostly on acquiring better talent (John Olerud, Aaron Sele, McLemore, Javier) than last year's players getting better. Can expect to play worse Aside from his saves, Mesa wasn't too effective. If he starts the season as the closer, he's unlikely to keep the job. Bell hit 21 home runs last year, but just two in 36 games at Safeco Field.
Projected lineup CF Mike Cameron 2B David Bell 1B John Olerud SS Alex Rodriguez DH Edgar Martinez RF Jay Buhner/Stan Javier C Dan Wilson 3B Carlos Guillen LF Mark McLemore/Brian Hunter Rotation/Closer Jamie Moyer Freddy Garcia Aaron Sele John Halama Gil Meche/Brett Tomko Kazuhiro Sasaki/Jose Mesa A closer look On paper, the Mariners have the potential to be one of baseball's most improved teams. A key to Seattle's playoff hopes is the performance of Freddy Garcia, who surpassed all expectations as a rookie. Skipping Triple-A, the big 22-year-old righty went 17-8 with a 4.07 ERA, finishing in the top 10 in the AL in wins, ERA and strikeouts. Garcia finished strong, going 6-1 his final nine starts and posting a 2.97 ERA after the All-Star break. However, there are alarm bells about Garcia's season, with a particularly loud ring from September 11. On that day, in a meaningless game against the Orioles, Lou Piniella left Garcia in to throw 137 pitches. Three starts earlier, Garcia threw 139 pitches against the Tigers. In fact, Garcia threw 120 or more pitches 10 times, an extremely high total for a young pitcher. Should there be added concern about Garcia's health in 2000? Some analysts predict the "abuse" inflicted upon Garcia in 1999 will come back to haunt the Mariners this season. Garcia logged 201.1 innings as a 22-year-old. We thought it would be interesting to check all pitchers since 1990 who were 23 or younger and pitched 200 innings in a season. There were 25 such seasons from 1990-98, including three from Steve Avery and two each from Jim Abbott and Ramon Martinez. Do these pitchers tend to break down? The pitchers: Alex Fernandez (1993); Jim Abbott (1990, 1991); Mike Mussina (1992); Ramon Martinez (1990, 1991); Livan Hernandez (1998); Steve Avery (1991, 1992, 1993); Brad Radke (1996); John Smoltz (1990); Dave Fleming (1992); Ismael Valdes (1996); Andy Benes (1991); Matt Morris (1997); Steve Cooke (1993); Wilson Alvarez (1993); Kevin Appier (1991); Frank Rodriguez (1996); Jamey Wright (1998); Frank Castillo (1992); Scott Erickson (1991); Bartolo Colon (1998); Jose Rosado (1997). Here are the average totals for these 25 pitcher-seasons from one year to the next:
IP ERA
Year 1 220.1 3.60
Year 2 185.0 3.65
Of those 25 pitcher-seasons, only seven hurlers logged more innings the following season (although four seasons were affected by the 1994 strike). Twelve pitchers lowered their ERA the following year, 12 got worse and one stayed the same.
Only two of the pitchers came down with career-threatening arm injuries: Steve Cooke and Matt Morris.
Two of the pitchers had arm problems and were never quite as good: Ramon Martinez and Frank Castillo.
Two pitchers eventually lost their fastballs by the time they were 25: Jim Abbott and Steve Avery.
Two pitchers suffered significant injuries much later in their careers: Kevin Appier and Alex Fernandez.
(Also, two pitchers in the minors who reached 200 innings at young ages were Bill Pulsipher and Jason Isringhausen of the Mets. Pulsipher pitched 201 innings at Double-A in 1994 at age 20, pitched well in '95 and then blew out his elbow. Isringhausen logged 221 innings in '95 at age 22 between the minors and majors, pitched poorly in '96 and then blew out his arm.)
What does this mean for Garcia? Of the 21 major league pitchers in the study, it's perhaps safe to say that six of them suffered because of heavy workloads at a young age -- including the three pitchers who appeared on the list twice. But is that really any different from the general pitching population as a whole?
One thing to consider is that Garcia's average pitch counts were probably higher than many of these guys, due to his high walk and strikeout rates. At the same time, his best pitching came in August and Sepember and he logged just 201 innings.
Stylistically and size-wise, Garcia most compares with the big, hardthrowers: Andy Benes, Matt Morris, Livan Hernandez, Bartolo Colon, Jim Abbott.
Hernandez is an interesting comparison. Remember, he had finished 1997 strong, winning the World Series MVP for the Marlins. In 1998, his first full season, Hernandez averaged 119 pitches per start and his ERA shot up from 3.18 to 4.72. Garcia was abused far less, averaging 106.5 pitches per start (18th among starters with 30 starts) and throwing 34 fewer innings.
It's impossible to predict what will happen with Garcia. He's a strong kid with a bright future -- if his arm holds up. Let's just hope Piniella doesn't leave him out there for any 140-pitch games this year.
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Mariners minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | |||||||||
