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| | Wednesday, April 19 Kansas City Royals | ||||||||||
| By Rany Jazayerli Special to ESPN.com
Record: 64-97, 28th overall Payroll: $16.6 million, 27th overall Runs scored: 856, 6th in AL Runs allowed: 921, 14th in AL What went right? Carlos Beltran was Rookie of the Year. Carlos Febles also had a fine rookie season (.256, great defense) before injuries to his shoulder and hand slowed him down. Jermaine Dye had a breakout season (.294, 27 HR, 44 doubles, 119 RBI), and Mike Sweeney, who any team in baseball could have had for a couple of Twix bars in spring training, was even better. Along with continued improvement from Johnny Damon and a good year from Joe Randa, the Royals set a franchise record by scoring 856 runs. Jose Rosado finished fifth in the league with a 3.85 ERA. What went wrong? The bullpen. Let's examine the suspects: Jeff Montgomery, 6.84 ERA. Scott Service, 6.09 ERA. Matt Whisenant, 6.35 ERA. And they were the Royals' closer and set-up men to start the season. The Royals were the first team in history with more blown saves (30) than saves (29). They lost a staggering 20 games they led after six innings. They were, in short, arguably the worst bullpen of all time. Aside from Rosado and Jeff Suppan, none of the starting pitchers were all that effective either. Oh, and the catchers were awful: Tim Spehr and Chad Kreuter combined to hit .219 and throw out just 30 percent of attempted basestealers. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Playing Dos Carlos. Despite not an inning of Triple-A experience between them, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Febles so impressed the Royals in their September callups in 1998 that the organization committed to them whole-heartedly, giving each full-time jobs. They did not disappoint. 2. Holding on to Mike Sweeney. After inexplicably giving up on Sweeney as a catcher, the Royals nearly traded him away in March before Jeremy Giambi's balky hamstring opened up a roster spot. After opening the season sharing DH duties with Larry Sutton, Sweeney hit over .400 the first week and never looked back. 3. Bringing back Jeff Montgomery. The Royals had a decision to make a year ago: should they bring back Montgomery, who saved 36 games in 1998 and was the franchise's all-time saves leader, or let him walk because of his 4.98 ERA and because he hadn't had an ERA under 3.00 since 1993? They let the heat of emotion triumph over cold, hard analysis, and got burned. 4. Trading Kevin Appier. After returning from shoulder surgery that caused him to miss almost all of 1998, it was clear that while Appier could still pitch effectively, he was nowhere near his pre-injury form as one of the game's best starters. This time, the Royals made the difficult but correct decision, and dealt Appier to the A's for three young arms, including Blake Stein, who had a better ERA (4.09) after the trade than Appier (5.77) did. Looking ahead to 2000Three key questions 1. Can anyone here pitch? Aside from Rosado and Suppan, not a single member of the pitching staff was healthy and effective all season. The Royals have some young starters who have the potential to improve, like Jay Witasick and Stein, and several minor leaguers capable of making a big impact in their rookie seasons, including former No. 1 pick Dan Reichert and flame-throwing reliever Orber Moreno. But "potential" and "capable" doesn't win games; the Royals need to turn some of their question marks into exclamation points. 2. Can the young players develop into stars? Two-thirds of the Royals' lineup last year was 25 or younger, and at least five of them -- Beltran, Febles, Damon, Dye, Sweeney, and possibly Giambi -- are coming back for 2000. If two or three of them can make the leap from quality regular to bonafide star, the Royals could surprise everyone with one of the most potent offenses in baseball. 3. What should be done about the outfield logjam? In addition to a starting outfield of Damon, Beltran, and Dye, the Royals also have Mark Quinn, who hit .333 with six homers in his September debut, and Dee Brown, one of the best outfield prospects in baseball. There's no room at DH, so the Royals need to make a trade or risk letting Quinn and Brown waste a year in Triple-A. Can expect to play better Jeremy Giambi hit .285 as a rookie despite the Royals' best efforts to sabotage his career. If the Royals will just let him play, he's capable of hitting .320 with 25 homers and 90 walks. If Carlos Febles is healthy, he could raise his batting average 50 points from the .256 he hit last year. Can expect to play worse Joe Randa, who had never reached double figures in homers before, hit 16 to go along with a .314 average. He'll be lucky to come close to those numbers again this year. Rey Sanchez hit .294, but he's 32 and that was 21 points above his career mark.
Projected lineup LF Johnny Damon 2B Carlos Febles CF Carlos Beltran RF Jermaine Dye 1B Mike Sweeney DH Jeremy Giambi 3B Joe Randa C Sal Fasano SS Rey Sanchez Rotation/Closer Jose Rosado Jeff Suppan Jay Witasick Blake Stein Dan Reichert Closer Wanted -- Inquire Within A closer look After 10 years of drifting aimlessly as an organization, the Royals finally appear to have regained a sense of direction, investing in their farm system and building a young team with an eye towards competing in 2001 or 2002. And they began to reap the rewards of their patience last year, when the Royals' offense scored more runs than the league average for the first time in 17 years -- with a lineup filled with players in their early 20s. But now we're in the offseason, and this time of year has always been a dangerous one for the Royals. The team's management is once again wavering in their resolve, and are threatening once to derail their youth movement over a pathetically trivial issue. Tony Muser, the Royals' manager, has done a fairly good job of remaining patient with his young players and giving them the confidence to succeed. But he has one enormous blind spot that is blocking his view of some of his finest hitters. You see, Muser played in the major leagues for nine years as a light-hitting but slick-fielding first baseman, and he has now made it his calling to see that the Royals' first baseman can play excellent defense, no matter what the cost might be. When Jeff King suddenly retired early last season, the Royals gave the position to Mike Sweeney, who had never played first base in his career, and moved highly-touted prospect Jeremy Giambi to first base in the minor leagues so that he could learn the position. As you would expect from someone learning how to play a new position, both of them struggled on defense. This has been unacceptable to both Muser and GM Herk Robinson, who in their panic to get a good defensive first baseman, are doing their best to ruin the careers of two of the best hitters they have developed in 25 years. After Giambi, who could be every bit as devastating a hitter as his brother Jason, was brought up at midseason, the Royals made no effort to talk about how potent his bat can be. Instead, they publically criticized his defense -- even though he was mostly used as a DH -- and benched him from time to time. Not surprisingly, all the negativity surrounding him affected Giambi's bat as well, as he hit only .285 with little power. Sweeney, despite his defensive problems, had a terrific season at the plate. He made 12 errors in 74 games at first base, but improved markedly as the season progressed. In short, there was no reason for the Royals to be concerned about beginning next season with Sweeney as their first baseman. But they are concerned. So concerned, that they're thinking of bringing in Paul Sorrento -- who's 34 years old, has hit a combined .230 over the last two years, and is hardly a Gold Glover himself -- and trading Giambi away. So concerned, that there has actually been talk of moving Jermaine Dye from right field to first base. The Royals claim it's just talk, but they also acquired Todd Dunwoody from the Marlins, who could play right field if Dye moves to first base. Think about that for a moment. Muser may be the first manager in the history of major league baseball to value first base defense more than right field defense. Dye is arguably the best defensive right fielder in the AL today -- he led all right fielders with 362 putouts (21 more than Gold Glover Shawn Green), and led all outfielders in the American League with 17 baserunner kills (i.e. outfield assists). Yet the Royals are thinking of moving him to first base, a position where his ability to flag down fly balls is irrelevant, and where his arm -- one of the strongest throwing arms in baseball -- is almost never used. And it's a position he's never played before, but the Royals are wondering if he can play it better than Mike Sweeney, who at least has had a half-season to practice. The Royals are trying to assure their fans that there's no need to worry about the status of one of the team's best and most popular hitters. "I'm not giving up on Mike Sweeney," Muser said. Giving up? Mike Sweeney hit .322 last year, with 22 homers and 44 doubles, became one of just four Royals in history to score and drive in 100 runs in the same year, and tied a 53-year-old AL record by driving in a run in 13 straight games. And his manager has to reassure the fans that he's "not giving up"? This brings to mind a quote from the great Bill James: "Bad organizations will tend to project their weaknesses on their good players, and ultimately will dwell not on what the player can do, but on what he can't." Meanwhile, you know whether the rest of the league values offense more than defense at first base? They gave Rafael Palmeiro the Gold Glove, even though he played just 28 games there. The message is clear: when you hit .326 with 47 HRs and 148 RBI, most teams don't care whether you're a good first baseman or not. And when you hit .229 with two homers, like Twins rookie Doug Mientkiewicz did, nobody cares if you're a dazzling defensive player. Except the Royals. Tony Muser's insistence on validating his own career, and Herk Robinson's lack of faith in the ability of his organization's own prospects, is threatening to tear away at the fabric of the team's rebuilding process. Rany Jazayerli, MD, is co-author of the annual Baseball Prospectus, a hard-hitting, irreverent, no-holds-barred look at our national pastime. Look for the 2000 edition in bookstores everywhere Feb. 1. He can be reached by email at ranyj@umich.edu. | ALSO SEE Royals minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | ||||||||||
