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| | Wednesday, April 19 Cleveland Indians | ||||||||||
| By Rob Neyer ESPN.com
Record: 97-65, 4th overall (tie) Payroll: $73.5 million, 6th overall Runs scored: 1009, 1st in AL Runs allowed: 860, 8th in AL What went right? At 32, shortstop Omar Vizquel set career highs in virtually every hitting category, including runs, RBI, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Manny Ramirez knocked in 165 runs, most since Jimmie Foxx drove in 175 back in 1938. When he wasn't on the DL, Jim Thome was his usual devastating self, and Roberto Alomar enjoyed perhaps his finest all-around season. All told, the Indians scored 1,009 runs, thus becoming the first team to reach four figures since the 1950 Boston Red Sox. What went wrong? The quest for a true rotation ace continued. Bartolo Colon showed flashes of greatness, and at 18-5 his .783 winning percentage ranked second in the league. But his 3.95 ERA, while seventh-lowest in the league, left room for improvement. And young Jaret Wright, so impressive in October of 1997, practically collapsed, going 8-10 with an ugly 6.06 ERA. Worse, the club once again failed to win the big one, and after a shocking, come-from-ahead loss to Boston in the Division Series, manager Mike Hargrove got canned. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Working Jaret Wright awfully hard back in 1998. If you add everything up, Wright -- only 22 that season -- tossed 203 innings in '98. He also was worked fairly hard in 1997, and so perhaps we shouldn't have been surprised that everything fell apart in 1999. 2. Twice walking Nomar Garciaparra intentionally in Game 5 of the Division Series. Both times, Troy O'Leary followed with huge home runs as Boston won 12-8, and once again the Indians fell short of the Grand Prize. 3. Signing Roberto Alomar to a free-agent deal. After a disappointing 1998 in Baltimore, Alomar rebounded with perhaps the finest season of his career, setting personal highs in home runs, runs, RBI, walks and slugging percentage. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. Will some combination of Dave Roberts and/or Jacob Cruz and/or somebody else come close to replacing Kenny Lofton, who is expected to miss the first few months of the season after severely injuring his shoulder last fall? 2. Is Jaret Wright washed up at 24? 3. Does Chuck Finley, recently signed to bolster the rotation, have a few years left in that 37-year-old left flipper? Can expect to play better Richie Sexson may well have a swing as big as the great outdoors, but he's better than the .305 on-base percentage he posted last season. Everybody else in the lineup played as well as could have been expected, or better. Can expect to play worse Omar Vizquel. Perhaps this needn't be said, but Manny Ramirez is unlikely to knock in 165 runs in 2000. Projected lineup CF Dave Roberts SS Omar Vizquel 2B Roberto Alomar RF Manny Ramirez 1B Jim Thome LF David Justice DH Richie Sexson 3B Travis Fryman C Sandy Alomar
Rotation/Closer Bartolo Colon Chuck Finley Charles Nagy Dave Burba Jaret Wright Paul Shuey A closer look In the case of the Indians, it all started at the top, as Cleveland's lineup opened with perhaps the most dynamic combination of speed and on-base success in the history of the game. Incredibly, the Indians' No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 hitters all stole at least 25 bases and, even more importantly, posted .400-plus on-base percentages. Thus, you have Manny Ramirez, who drove in 165 runs (in only 147 games!), most by a major leaguer since 1938. Might we expect more of the same in 2000? As a Cockney baseball fan might exclaim, "Not bloody likely!" Below are the OBPs for the top three Cleveland hitters in 1999, along with their career OBPs entering the season:
1999 OBP Career Diff
No. 1 Lofton .405 .382 +23
No. 2 Vizquel .397 .330 +67
No. 3 R. Alomar .422 .370 +52
No, these deviations from previous career norms were not earth-shaking. Sometimes players do better than they have before, and sometimes they do worse. But from the perspective of the Indians and their fans, these deviations were fortuitous, and led to more than a few "extra" runs.
And we're unlikely to see such deviations again. Vizquel and Alomar, as great as they are, both are on the wrong side of 30, and probably haven't become fundamentally better hitters in the last year or so. Odds are that both will revert closer to their career norms next season.
On the other hand, leadoff man Kenny Lofton did just about what he always does ... unfortunately, an ill-advised head-first slide into first base last October will apparently cost him the first two or three months of the 2000 season. His replacement in center field and, presumably, the leadoff slot? Probably speedster Dave Roberts, who stole 50 bases last season -- Class AAA and major leagues combined -- and is considered an outstanding defensive center fielder. However, Roberts does not have Lofton's patience, and if he plays regularly will post an on-base percentage 50 or 60 points lower than Lofton might.
Add it all up, and it would be surprising if the Indians again scored 1,000 runs. But of course, they don't have to. In the American League Central, 900 runs should do just fine, barring a complete collapse of the pitching staff.
Rob Neyer is a staff writer for ESPN.com. | ALSO SEE Indians minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | ||||||||||
