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| | Thursday, April 20 Cincinnati Reds | ||||||||||
| By David Schoenfield ESPN.com
Record: 96-67, 7th overall Payroll: $38.0 million, 20th overall Runs scored: 865, 4th in NL Runs allowed: 706, 4th in NL What went right? NL Rookie of the Year Scott Williamson helped turn Jack McKeon's closer-by-committee into the best bullpen in the major leagues. Sean Casey developed into an All-Star first baseman. Barry Larkin played the most games of his career. Pokey Reese played Gold Glove defense at second base and even contributed a bit at the plate. Greg Vaughn proved his 1998 season wasn't a fluke with 45 home runs and 118 RBI. What went wrong? The Reds lost the one-game wild-card playoff to the Mets. Only one NL team (Milwaukee) averaged fewer innings per start than the Reds. Denny Neagle battled injuries early in the season and made just 19 starts. Brett Tomko struggled, going 5-7 with a 4.92 ERA in 26 starts. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. McKeon's handling of the bullpen. This is critical in two ways. First of all, the bullpen pitched brilliantly, going 33-23 with a 3.36 ERA and 55 saves. It was good to see a manager go against the convention of having one closer who just pitches the ninth inning. However, Scott Sullivan and Danny Graves each pitched more than 110 innings while Williamson pitched 93. Those are heavy workloads for relievers, something to watch in 2000. 2. Settling the logjam at first base. The Reds had two young first basemen, Sean Casey and Paul Konerko, both considered excellent prospects. Many teams would bring both to spring training, let them battle it out, and then bench the winner as soon as he went hitless for three games in mid-April. Instead of a bad situation developing, general manager Jim Bowden traded Konerko to the White Sox for Mike Cameron, who filled a gaping hole in center field. And Casey hit .332 with 25 home runs and 99 RBI. 3. The Greg Vaughn trade. Many were skeptical that Vaughn could come close to repeating his 50-homer season for San Diego in 1998. But he provided much-needed power for the Reds and carried the team with a monster September, when he hit 14 homers and drove in 33 runs. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. How will Dante Bichette hit away from Coors Field? 2. Will Scott Williamson move into the rotation and, if so, how will he do? 3. Will Bowden make a deal for Ken Griffey Jr.? Can expect to play better: Sean Casey has the ability to add more power and draw more walks, increasing both his slugging percentage and on-base percentage. He also may have to improve his conditioning a bit to avoid another second-half slump. Can expect to play worse New left fielder Bichette hit .298 with 34 home runs for the Rockies last season. He even hit OK on the road (.287, 14 homers). However, from 1994-1998, he hit .369 at home, .267 on the road, with 105 home runs at home, just 41 on the road. He won't hit as well as he did last year, he won't hit as well as Greg Vaughn did and he won't hit as well as Jeffrey Hammonds will in Colorado.
Projected lineup 2B Pokey Reese SS Barry Larkin CF Ken Griffey Jr. LF Dante Bichette 1B Sean Casey RF Dmitri Young C Eddie Taubensee 3B Aaron Boone Rotation/Closer Pete Harnisch Denny Neagle Steve Parris Ron Villone Rob Bell/Dennys Reyes/Elmer Dessens Danny Graves/Scott Williamson A closer look As the Reds surprised everybody last season by winning 96 games and nearly making the playoffs, a lot of different reasons were cited for their success. Greg Vaughn brought over power and "leadership" and finished fourth in the MVP voting. Jack McKeon was the "perfect" manager for the young players. Sean Casey had a "great" year. Pokey Reese provided a "lift" with his glove and bat. It's the last of those we want to examine. When Bret Boone was traded to Atlanta, Reese became the starting second baseman. Groomed as a shortstop, the Reds were confident he could handle the transition defensivley, but he entered the season with a .228 career batting average. Would he hit? Well, Reese won the Gold Glove and hit .285 with 10 home runs and 38 stolen bases. It became fashionable to give Reese a lot of credit for Cincinnati's success. In fact, as the Reds have tried to acquire Ken Griffey Jr. in the offseason, a major stumbling block has been the team's refusal to include Reese in the deal. But, how responsible was Pokey for Cincinnati's 19-game improvement in 1999? Here's how the Reds did this year compared to 1998:
1998 1999 Change
Runs scored 750 865 +115
Runs allowed 760 706 -54
They improved 115 runs on offense and 54 runs with pitching and defense.
Let's first look at the offense, comparing Reese to Boone's 1998 season.
OBP SLG Runs RBI RC RC/27
Reese .330 .417 85 52 76 4.61
Boone .324 .458 76 95 79 4.55
RC is runs created, which takes into account all of a player's offensive statistics, and RC/27 is runs created per 27 outs. Essentially, the players were identical contributers to the offense. The 115-run improvement came from other players, not Reese.
The Reds allowed 54 fewer runs as their team ERA fell from 4.44 to 3.98. You have to believe most of that improvement is going to come from the pitching staff and not the defense. (The Reds' bullpen had a 4.28 ERA in 1998, 3.36 in 1999.) Interestingly, Boone also won a Gold Glove in 1998. Let's compare the numbers:
Inn PO Ast E DP Range
Reese 1222.2 325 409 7 91 5.40
Boone 1358.0 329 415 9 100 4.93
The totals are similar. Neither player committed many errors and both turned the double play with similar efficiency. "Range" is the total number of plays made per nine innings and, as you can see, Reese did make more per plays per game than Boone, about a half-play per game. In the scheme of things, what does this mean to the 54 runs? It certainly means Reese was responsible for several of them.
How valuable is he? Reese had a .747 OPS (on-base + slugging percentage) in 1999, which ranked ninth among National League second baseman. Overall, he isn't a great offensive player and his .330 on-base percentage is much too low for a leadoff hitter. But he is a terrific fielder and young enough to get better at the plate. While Reese played better than expected, he was pretty much the same player Bret Boone was in 1998, so he was hardly the main reason the Reds won 96 games last year.
Pokey is a decent player. But he's not as valuable to the Reds as Barry Larkin or Sean Casey or Scott Williamson.
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.
| ALSO SEE Reds minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters AUDIO/VIDEO   Peter Gammons thinks Griffey will end up in Cincinnati.wav: 243 k RealAudio: 14.4 | 28.8 | 56.6 Gammons says Pokey Reese may be involved in the trade.wav: 243 k RealAudio: 14.4 | 28.8 | 56.6  | ||||||||||
