|
|
|
|
 |
| ||
|
Scores Schedules Standings Statistics Transactions Injuries: AL | NL Players Weekly Lineup Message Board Minor Leagues MLB Stat Search Clubhouses | ||
| Sport Sections | ||
|
| ||
| TODAY: Monday, May 15 | ||||||||||
| Chicago Cubs Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||
Record: 67-95, 26th overall Payroll: $55.4 million, 11th overall Runs scored: 747, 13th in NL Runs allowed: 920, 15th in NL What went right? Sammy Sosa maintained his incredible power output, smashing 63 homers and driving in 141 runs. Henry Rodriguez showed he is more than a one-dimensional slugger by hitting .304 with a .381 OBP. Glenallen Hill hit 20 homers in 99 games. Mark Grace remained his steady self. Jon Lieber, acquired from Pittsburgh for Brant Brown, proved to be a solid rotation starter, posting a fine 4.07 ERA in 203.1 innings. Rick Aguilera pitched well in the second half after some initial struggles after coming over from Minnesota in a late spring trade. What went wrong? The club collapsed after a 32-23 start, going 35-72. Ace starter Kerry Wood missed the entire season after blowing out his elbow. Poor run support hurt Steve Trachsel, but he simply didn't pitch well much of the time, posting a 5.56 ERA. Fellow starters Kevin Tapani, Kyle Farnsworth, and Terry Mulholland were erratic, inconsistent, and/or injured. The bullpen was terrible for most of the season. The hitting was nearly as bad as the pitching, ranking just 13th in runs scored. Veterans Mickey Morandini, Gary Gaetti, Lance Johnson, Jeff Blauser, and Benito Santiago were awful, crippling the offense and undoing the good work done by Sosa, Hill, Rodriguez, and Grace. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Relying on too many over-30 players to carry the hitting attack. If you can't score runs in Wrigley Field, you can't win. It's hard to score runs if you give too many at-bats to guys who can't get on base or hit for power, like Morandini (.319 OBP, .329 SLG), Gaetti (.260 OBP, .339 SLG), Johnson (.332 OBP, .337 SLG), or Santiago (.313 OBP, .377 SLG). To make matters worse, all of these players lost steps defensively as well. The Cubs were horrible up the middle with both bat and glove last year, which increased the pressure on the wilting pitching staff. 2. Forcefeeding Kyle Farnsworth into the rotation. Looking for someone to replace Kerry Wood, the Cubs felt they had no choice but to give Farnsworth 21 starts, in which he posted a 5.25 ERA. He has a very good arm, but he doesn't change speeds well, and it was obvious he needed more time in the minors. His ERA in relief was 3.38, which would have been a better role for him at this stage in his career. 3. The inability to bolster the bullpen. The only Cubs relievers who were effective last year were Matt Karchner, Mark Guthrie, and Bobby Ayala, none of whom pitched more than 18 innings. Aguilera did well in the second half to regain the closer job he lost after some rough initial outings, but the middle relief was mediocre at best (Terry Adams, Rodney Myers), and downright dreadful at times (Scott Sanders, Dan Serafini, Rod Beck, Steve Rain, etc.). Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1. Can Kerry Wood rebound from reconstructive elbow surgery? 2. Does Rick Aguilera still have what it takes to be an effective closer? 3. Can the Cubs find some people who can hit? It's a shame to surround Sosa, Rodriguez, and Grace with such a weak supporting cast. Can expect to play better Eric Young, coming over from Los Angeles, should put up good numbers in the leadoff slot given the change in stadiums. Kevin Tapani should rebound somewhat, if his back is fully healthy. Many scouts expect Kyle Farnsworth to improve a great deal with a year of experience under his belt. The bullpen has live arms available in Myers and Felix Heredia, who could both improve unexpectedly. Anything the Cubs get out of Wood is a bonus. Can expect to play worse Can Sosa hit 60+ homers again? Probably not, although we said the same thing last year. Henry Rodriguez set a career-high in OBP last year, but is on the wrong side of 30 and could backslide easily. Ismael Valdes' ERA will take a hit from the change in parks, though he should remain at least a league average pitcher, and will eat some innings. It's hard to see how newly-acquired Joe Girardi is going to improve matters much behind the plate.
2B Eric Young CF Damon Buford 1B Mark Grace RF Sammy Sosa LF Henry Rodriguez 3B Shane Andrews/Willie Greene C Joe Girardi SS Ricky Gutierrez Rotation/Closer Ismael Valdes Kevin Tapani Jon Lieber Kyle Farnsworth Kerry Wood Rick Aguilera A closer look Cubs fans desperately want to forget 1999, as does the front office. GM Ed Lynch has turned over the roster a bit going into 2000, hoping to correct the deficiencies displayed by his team last year. Unfortunately, the Cubs don't have a lot of strengths to work with. Both the hitting attack and the pitching were terrible last year, and it can be very hard to fix one problem without opening another hole somewhere else. First, the pitching. Steve Trachsel is gone, replaced in the rotation by Ismael Valdes, acquired from the Dodgers in a salary dump trade. Trachsel is terribly inconsistent, solid some years while awful others. Valdes is a better pitcher, but was something of a scapegoat in Los Angeles. It's hard to find guys with sub-4.00 ERAs these days. On the other hand, he doesn't have a great track record on the road, and pitching at Wrigley Field is a lot harder than pitching in Dodger Stadium. At a minimum, the Cubs should expect a league-average ERA and 200 innings out of Valdes, with the chance for more than that if everything works out. The rest of the rotation is pretty much the same, with the Cubs relying on Kerry Wood to make at least 20 starts. The early reports on the health of his arm are positive, but it remains to be seen how much velocity he will retain, how good his command will be, and how he will adjust psychologically. A healthy Wood, even if he doesn't totally regain his 1998 form, will give the Cubs a big boost. His presence, along with Valdes, should improve the rotation, perhaps a great deal. The bullpen is another matter. Rick Aguilera pitched well in the second half last year, but at age 38 he could collapse into a heap of dust at any time. If that happens, relief could be a major problem once again, as there is little ready to back him up. If it were up to me, I'd consider making Kyle Farnsworth the backup closer, but the Cubs haven't asked my opinion. Overall, the pitching should be somewhat better than last year, although the bullpen remains a potential trouble spot. Now, to the hitting. The Cubs' attack was awful in 1999, and there is no reason to expect a major improvement in 2000. The new catcher is apparently Joe Girardi, signed to a ridiculous three-year contract. It's hard to believe, but the Cubs actually found a catcher who is worse than Benito Santiago. Santiago had a .313 OBP and a .377 SLG last year; Girardi was at .271/.354. Jeff Reed is still around, but he was part of the problem last year, and at age 37, it's doubtful he'll become part of the solution. The Cubs did upgrade at second base, replacing Mickey Morandini with Eric Young, who gets on base at a much better rate and can actually hit the ball out of the infield occasionally. Third base is a wild card. The current plan is to split time between Willie Greene and Shane Andrews, who both have considerable power, but erratic track records. I think Greene is the more talented of the two, but the Cubs seem to have a thing for Andrews. Even if the combination hits .240 with 25 homers, that's more than what the Cubs got from the position last year. Consider it a mild upgrade. Shortstop, like catcher, won't improve and could get worse. Jeff Blauser, Jose Hernandez, and Manny Alexander split time there last year. Hernandez, the best of the trio, was traded to the Braves for the stretch run, and neither Blauser nor Alexander is back for 2000. The current plan is to go with free agent signee Ricky Gutierrez, who has no power at all but will draw a walk occasionally. Cubs shortstops last year had a .340 OBP and a .418 SLG, mostly due to Hernandez. Gutierrez will reach the .340 OBP mark, but his SLG won't come close to that. The other major change is in center field, where Damon Buford replaces Lance Johnson. Cubs center fielders hit .262, with a .329 OBP and a .390 SLG last year. Damon Buford's career marks: .243, .312, .389. At best, center field is in a holding pattern until Corey Patterson is ready. So, the Cubs are worse at catcher and shortstop, better at second and third, and about the same in center field. Even with the generous assumption that Sammy Sosa, Mark Grace, Henry Rodriguez, and Glenallen Hill don't fall off at all in 2000, the hitting attack looks about as good as last year's. In other words, it still stinks. Slightly better pitching and a similar hitting attack would put the Cubs in the low-70s for wins in 2000. Things will improve once talented prospects like Patterson arrive in Wrigley Field, but that won't be for a year or two. Expect another long summer, Cubs fans. John Sickels is the author of the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. | ALSO SEE Cubs minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | |||||||||
