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| TODAY: Monday, May 15 | ||||||||||
| Baltimore Orioles Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||
Record: 78-84, 15th overall Payroll: $75.4 million, 5th overall Runs scored: 851, 8th in AL Runs allowed: 815, 3rd in AL What went right? The pitching, overall, was surprisingly good, ranking third in the league in runs allowed. Mike Mussina was in fine form, going 18-7 with a 3.50 ERA. Scott Erickson pitched well in the second half, while youngsters Sidney Ponson and Jason Johnson showed flashes of ability. Mike Timlin had a 1.40 ERA after the All-Star break. Cal Ripken hit .340, although injuries limited him to just 86 games. A hot second half gave Albert Belle 37 homers and 117 RBI. Brady Anderson, B.J. Surhoff, and Jeff Conine put up decent numbers, though far from spectacular by current standards. What went wrong? The Orioles got off to a horrible start, burying themselves behind the Yankees by going 19-31 in the first 50 games. The bullpen blew 25 saves, which distorted the rest of the staff by increasing pressure on the starters. Baltimore actually scored 36 more runs than they allowed last year, which would normally translate into a record above .500, but a combination of bad luck, bad timing, and poor management decisions (from the top down) ruined the season. Injured vets Will Clark and Delino DeShields were major disappointments, and the team gave too many innings to washed-up pitchers like Doug Linton and Mike Fetters. In retrospect, the critical decisions were: 1. Relying on too many ancient players. Clark hasn't been healthy since Dan Quayle was a heartbeat away from the presidency, while Ray Miller seemed to revel in getting useless pitchers like Fetters, Linton, and Heathcliff Slocumb into games. Even the old guys like Anderson and Surhoff who managed to stay in the lineup and could still hit have lost a step defensively. 2. Not letting the youngsters -- or at least the right youngsters -- play. When it was obvious that the season was lost, the Orioles should have been more willing to go with youth. Instead, they let Calvin Pickering rot in Rochester or on the bench, in favor of Derrick May and Conine. On the other hand, they put Ryan Minor at third base when Ripken was injured. Minor can't hit, and unlike Pickering he isn't young enough to get much better. 3) Misunderstanding the true nature of their problems. More on that later. Looking ahead to 2000 Three key questions 1) Do all these old guys have one more good year left? 2) Will the attempt to retool the bullpen work? 3) How much of a difference will a new manager make? Can Mike Hargrove improve a sour clubhouse atmosphere? Even if he does, will this translate to wins on the field? Can expect to play better Timlin should do better now that he is adjusted to the environment. Mussina could rip off 25 wins if he gets into a groove and they score some runs for him. DeShields has come back before when no one expected it; good health will help him. Albert Belle could still hit 50 homers. Since so many of the Orioles are old, it is hard to point out someone who is a good bet to improve. Can expect to play worse Since so many of the Orioles are old, it is easy to point out someone who is a good bet to get worse. Ripken, Harold Baines, Surhoff, Clark, Anderson, Conine, and Mike Bordick are all at the point of their careers where swift, catastrophic decline can occur. Projected lineup CF Brady Anderson SS Mike Bordick LF B.J. Surhoff RF Albert Belle DH Harold Baines 1B Will Clark/Jeff Conine 3B Cal Ripken C Charles Johnson 2B Delino DeShields/Jerry Hairston Jr.
Mike Mussina Scott Erickson Sidney Ponson Pat Rapp Jason Johnson Mike Timlin A closer look The severe struggles of the Orioles bullpen last year, especially early in the season, focused attention on the club's pitching staff. The hitting was considered solid by most observers, with several regulars at or above the .300 mark, with superficially good power numbers. The fact remains, however, that by the end of the year the Orioles had the third-best pitching staff in the American League, but with an offense that ranked eighth. It isn't batting average that counts in the end; it is runs scored, which is a function of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The front office, such as it is, has spent the offseason attempting to bolster the pitching staff, especially the bullpen. Mike Trombley, Chuck McElroy and Buddy Groom have been brought in to prop up the middle relief corps. None of these guys are excellent, and all of them are poor risks as long-term investments. In the long run, guys like B.J. Ryan and Gabe Molina will have more value. But the new vets should, hopefully, be better than the Lintons and Fetters of the world. Don't expect the Orioles to blow 25 saves again, and don't expect their middle relief to be as bad. The starting staff, on the other hand, is the same as last year, plus the recent addition of Pat Rapp. Mussina is outstanding and should remain so. Erickson is either really good or really bad, but that's always true for him. Ponson is one of the more promising young pitchers around. Rapp is a decent pitcher who should put up adequate, though not spectacular, numbers. He probably won't be quite as good as Juan Guzman was last year before they traded him. Johnson has the natural ability to at least be average, but isn't yet. The Orioles, barring disaster, should once again rank better than league average in pitching, especially with the revamped bullpen. The hitting, on the other hand, could easily collapse into a heap of dust. The offense was only middle-of-the-pack last year, ranking eighth in runs scored. Guys like Anderson and Surhoff were above league average for their positions, but not massively so, while Conine/Clark, DeShields, Bordick, and Charles Johnson were all below average, or worse. Jerry Hairston is supposed to supplement DeShields at second, but he doesn't have a great stick either. For the offense to get better, it can't just stay the same. Someone has to improve, and most of the regulars are simply too old for this to be likely. So, the Orioles enter 2000 with a better bullpen, but a starting rotation and everyday lineup almost the same as last year. How will they do? Baltimore underachieved in 1999; they should have been three or four games over .500 considering the fact that they scored more than they gave up. Normally, a team that underperforms their Pythagorean projection improves the following season. The bullpen patch gives them a chance to do this, but this is still a very old team that will have trouble scoring enough runs. They won't challenge the Yankees. If everything goes right, they could win 85 games. If everything goes right, and they get really lucky, they could challenge for the wild card. In the big picture, however, all the Orioles have really done is put off rebuilding for another year. John Sickels is the author of the 2000 STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. You can email your questions to him at JASickels@AOL.com. | ALSO SEE Orioles minor-league report ESPN.com's Hot Stove Heaters  | |||||||||
