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Sport Sections
Wednesday, December 13
Age, injuries could hurt Texas lineup
By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

In the wake of Alex Rodriguez's new contract, I have (as they say) a question and a comment:

Question: What happens if two (or more) players have contracts guaranteeing that they'll be the highest-paid in the game?

Comment: From last spring through last week, I couldn't open my front door without somebody asking me, "Where's Alex going to end up?" Admittedly, I have less insight into such matters than do, say, Peter Gammons or Jayson Stark. That said, what I told inquisitors through all those months was, "I don't have any idea, and I don't think that anybody else does, either." Well, how many people were talking about the Rangers last summer?

Power Surge
Alex Rodriguez will bring a needed boost to the Rangers infield in the upcoming season. Texas shortstops ranked 12th in the American League in batting last season, while A-Rod more than doubled their home run and RBI production.
  Rodriguez Rangers SS
BA .316 .238
Slug. Pct. .606 .384
HR 41 15
RBI 132 62
Runs 134 72

Now, about the Texas Rangers, Rodriguez's brand-new team ... Have they purchased themselves a pennant?

We can see that the Rangers' new lineup looks mighty impressive. Three of the nine regulars posted 1000-plus OPS's last season, and that doesn't even include Rafael Palmeiro (955) and Andres Galarraga (895). In 2000, the Rangers finished ninth in the American League in run production, and looking at the new lineup, it seems fairly apparent that they'll improve on that in 2001. But how much will they improve? Rather than look at the performance statistics, which are indeed impressive, let's look at a few other numbers:

                  Games   Age
Randy Velarde      122     38 
Rusty Greer        105     32
Ivan Rodriguez      91     29
Alex Rodriguez     148     25 
Rafael Palmeiro    158     36
Andres Galarraga   141     39
Ken Caminiti        59     37
Gabe Kapler        116     25
Ruben Mateo         52     23

There are two truisms about injuries. The first holds that players who have been injured in the past are likely to be injured in the future. The second holds that the older a player is, the more likely he is to be injured.

Assuming these two truisms are accurate, I have concerns about the Rangers' new-look lineup. Velarde, Greer, Ivan Rodriguez, Caminiti, Kapler and Mateo -- that's six of the nine projected regulars -- spent significant time on the disabled list last season. Of those six, Velarde and Caminiti are both in their late 30s, and don't figure to get either healthier or, perhaps more the point, better.

The other three are Alex Rodriguez, Rafael Palmeiro and Andres Galarraga. Palmeiro and Galarraga are also in their late 30s. And Rodriguez, in his five full seasons as a major leaguer, has been on the DL four times.

What all this suggests to me is that the "projected Rangers lineup" will rarely take the field, because one or more of its members will likely be on the DL at any particular time.

The Rangers will almost certainly feature a solid hitting attack next season. But will they be able to simply slug their way to the postseason, as they did in 1998 and 1999?

No, I don't think that they can. If the Rangers are going to win 90-plus games, they'll need to finish in the middle of the pack in pitching, too. 		 

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