|
|
|
|
 |
| ||
|
Scores Schedules Standings Statistics Transactions Injuries: AL | NL Players Weekly Lineup Message Board Minor Leagues MLB Stat Search Clubhouses | ||
| Sport Sections | ||
|
| ||
| TODAY: Monday, May 15 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lineup analysis: NL Central Special to ESPN.com | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Chicago Cubs
Strengths They are few and far between. Young is in the right spot, given the likelihood that he'll either lead the team in walks or finish second behind Grace. Sosa is doing all he can to keep the team afloat, and Rodriguez and Andrews should provide some pop. On the bright side, the Brewers are worse, and the festering wounds at second, short, and third have been addressed. Weaknesses Choosing Joe Girardi as your No. 2 hitter (although that's not set in stone) would be bad enough, but when you think he's the best of your three options -- all of whom are in the lineup -- that's just inexcusable. Buford and Gutierrez are the other two Muppets, creating outs at the bottom of the lineup; Gutierrez has never posted an OPS above .703 in any season. With Girardi threatening to walk only 15 or 20 times, the Cubs could land around 500 walks on the season, putting them in the bottom three or four teams in the league. Key player Eric Young is the only player on the team with a shot at a good on-base percentage and the mobility to take advantage of it. When you play in Wrigley and have to manufacture runs, you're in trouble. Overall 1999: 747 runs, 13th in the NL 2000: They've got a shot to crack 750. Cincinnati Reds
Strengths Ken Griffey obviously represents a huge boost over Mike Cameron -- over 50 runs' worth last year. A full year of Dmitri Young would help, although the Reds have yet to trade Michael Tucker and ensure Young's playing time. Barry Larkin, Sean Casey, and Eddie Taubensee are all in the top third for their positions in the NL, although all three are likely to do worse this year than they did last year -- Casey because his year was so uncharacteristic, and Larkin and Taubensee because they're aging. Weaknesses Pokey Reese at the top of the lineup -- ahead of Larkin, Griffey, and Casey -- is inexcusable. In a year completely out of line with his minor league and previous major-league numbers, he managed an on-base percentage of .330. He could fail to crack .300 this year unless he learns to draw a walk, and at age 27, he's not likely to do so. Dante Bichette belongs in the seven or eight hole, but when he's slugging .380 in late May, Young could remedy that and move up a notch. Most teams get more from their left fielders, but the Reds are solidly committed to Bichette for this year. Key player Reese has to reach base at least 33 percent of the time for this offense to score as many runs as it did last year. Overall 1999: 865 runs, 4th in the NL 2000: Griffey tries to offset the drops from Reese, Bichette, and Casey, but Dante's inferno burns up too many runs. Houston Astros
*Double-A numbers Strengths Few teams can start their lineups with three .400 OBP hitters, but the Astros could easily start with four, as Moises Alou posted a .399 OBP in his career-year 1998 season. Either Richard Hidalgo or Daryle Ward would be a real asset in the six hole, and Ward could easily hit cleanup when subbing for Alou. Julio Lugo would be one of the league's top 8th-place hitters if he won the job from Tim Bogar. The team also has a tremendous amount of speed at the top of the lineup. Earl Weaver would just love these Astros. Weaknesses Ken Caminiti can't be counted on for many at-bats or for much power, and the best replacement, Russ Johnson, is another walking machine but doesn't pack enough juice for this team's needs. Mitch Meluskey would be a better offensive choice than Tony Eusebio, but Eusebio is a Proven Veteran. Shortstop is a bit of a hole, worse if Bogar starts. Key player The answer to the question, "Which Moises Alou will show up this year?" could determine whether this Astros offense is great or merely very good. Overall 1999: 823 runs, 8th in the NL 2000: Leaving the Astrodome and adding Roger Cedeno should move the Astros into the top four. Milwaukee Brewers
Strengths Jeromy Burnitz is one of the majors' best unknown players, capable of hitting for a decent average with tons of walks and great power. His career year last year was interrupted by a broken hand, but that shouldn't affect him in 2000. Ron Belliard is a rising talent who would fit nicely in the one- or two-holes if Davey Lopes had his wits about him. Beyond those two, it's a train wreck worthy of Amtrak unless Geoff Jenkins' can match last year's surprising season. Weaknesses No team in the 1990s failed to draw at least 388 walks, but these Brewers could touch that number and could threaten the Cardinals' post-1950 record of 345. Aside from Burnitz and Belliard, no one is a good bet to draw even 50 walks. If Burnitz gets hurt, the Brewers won't even draw 350 walks. Grissom's .320 OBP is inexcusable in the top spot, especially with Belliard doing no good hitting in front of Henry Blanco and a pitcher. Meanwhile, the power drops off after Jenkins, and Hernandez is a significant step back from Jeff Cirillo. This team just isn't going to score many runs, and there's little help on the farm. Key player Having Belliard at the top of the order in Grissom's stead could be worth 15 more runs over the course of the season. Overall 1999: 815, 9th in the NL 2000: A bad scene turns downright ugly. Pittsburgh Pirates
*Triple-A numbers Strengths This is easily the strongest 1-6 that the Pirates have trotted out since the early 1990s, even with the questionable inclusion of Wil Cordero in the five-hole. The first four hitters all have legitimate shots at .400 OBPs, with Jason Kendall and Brian Giles near locks to hit that mark, and Giles, Kevin Young, and Aramis Ramirez are all good bets for .500+ slugging percentages. Ramirez alone should represent an improvement of several runs over Ed Sprague, who posted a second-half OPS of .620 last year to go with his horrid defense. Of course, a full year of Kendall will help as well. Weaknesses While the Pirates are giddy over Cordero's strong offensive showing in 194 at-bats last year, keep in mind that he has never slugged .500 over a full season (.489 was his highest, in '94) and is hitting fifth behind two guys who combined to reach base over 470 times last year. If Ramirez starts strong and can claim the fifth spot, the lineup would make more sense. Key player Ramirez was a little overmatched in '98, but he's ready now after terrorizing the PCL last year. He's a good bet for 60 walks and 20 homers with lots of doubles, even though he'll be just 22 in June. Overall 1999: 775 runs, 12th in the NL. 2000: A good bet to improve by 25-50 runs, depending on the health of key players. St. Louis Cardinals
Strengths The division's second-best lineup isn't necessarily going to last with so many injury-prone players, but manager Tony La Russa has several options due to the multiple abilities of J.D. Drew, who can hit anywhere from 1 to 6 and add value. Edgar Renteria might be the league's top offensive shortstop this year, Fernando Tatis will likely be the league's top offensive third baseman, and Mark McGwire will probably trail only Jeff Bagwell. Drew and Eli Marrero are both likely to improve significantly. New acquisition Jim Edmonds moves Eric Davis into a less prominent role. Weaknesses The Cards' main weakness is Grumpy La Russa, who is threatening to pull playing time from both Marrero and Drew. The only other weakness is the injury risk, as Drew, Lankford, and Vina all missed time last year with injuries. Key If LaRussa leaves this lineup alone for a month, he'll be happy. Overall 1999: 809 runs, 10th in the NL. 2000: They'll score when those eight hitters are starting. Keith Law is a co-author of the Baseball Prospectus and of Fantasy Baseball Index magazine. He writes a weekly column, The Pivot, for ESPN Fantasy Games. | ALSO SEE Lineup analysis: NL East Lineup analysis: NL West Lineup analysis: AL East Lineup analysis: AL Central Lineup analysis: AL West  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||