| | 1. Top of the orders
During the season Chuck Knoblauch and Derek Jeter, the Yankees' Nos. 1 and 2 hitters, had a combined on-base percentage of .415, compared to .322 for the Braves' top two hitters, Gerald Williams and Bret Boone. That's quite a disparity at the top of the order. The Braves must keep Knoblauch and Jeter off the bases. Last year in the World Series, they were on base 19 times in four games against the Padres and just created havoc throughout. If they are on base that much again, the Yankees will score runs, especially with Paul O'Neill, Bernie Williams and Tino Martinez hitting behind them.
On the other side, Williams and Boone must find a way to get on base. If they don't get on base, the Yankees can pitch around Chipper Jones like the Mets basically did in the NLCS, walking Jones nine times. If the Yankees can take the bat out of Jones' hands, that takes away a big chunk of the Braves offense.
2. Someone besides Chipper
I foresee the Yankees pitching around Jones. So Brian Jordan needs to have a big series for the Braves. It also wouldn't hurt if Ryan Klesko started earning his keep against the Yankees' right-handed pitching. He had one hit, a home run, against the Mets. In '95, when the Braves won the World Series over Cleveland, Klesko hit three home runs as a DH in Cleveland.
Andruw Jones needs to get on one of his notorious hot streaks. He had three hits in Game 2 of the NLCS, but only one hit the rest of the series. The Braves can't expect Eddie Perez and Walt Weiss to carry the offense, even though they were the offensive stars of the NLCS. It's unimaginable that Perez and Weiss can maintain that offensive pace. The Braves need some pop from other parts of the lineup.
3. Atlanta's control pitching
One thing the Braves pitchers do very well is throw strikes. They didn't walk Rickey Henderson once in the NLCS. Meanwhile the Yankees hitters exhibit patience at the plate. The Braves need to throw a lot of quality strikes and not let the Yankees get their 7-9 pitch at-bats, leading to high pitch counts and early exits for the Braves starters. Last year the Padres starters couldn't get deep in the games for a variety of reasons. Plus, the Yankees worked the San Diego pitchers for 20 walks in four games.
4. Ramiro Mendoza
Ramiro Mendoza didn't have his best year (9-9, 4.23 ERA), but he is pitching great in the postseason (no earned runs in 2 1/3 innings) and has a lot of confidence. He has the ability to get right- and left-handed hitters out with his great sinker. He got two huge strikeouts against Butch Huskey and Scott Hatteberg to seal victories in Games 2 and 5. He gives Joe Torre a weapon out of the bullpen much like Mariano Rivera as a setup man for closer John Wetteland in the '96 Series. He could boil the game down to six innings, get Mendoza in the game for two innings if needed before turning the game over to Rivera, who has been money in the bank. Rivera hasn't allowed a run since July 21.
5. The DH factor
For the three games at Yankee Stadium, the advantage clearly favors the Yankees. The Braves are talking about using Jose Hernandez, Ozzie Guillen or Keith Lockhart as their designated hitter. Those three players certainly won't strike fear in anybody's heart like Chili Davis and Darryl Strawberry would for the Yankees. On paper, I don't think the Braves can afford to go down 2-0 like the Yankees did at home in 1996, and then go into New York having to use the DH.
ESPN's Dave Campbell will be covering the playoffs on ESPN Radio. | |
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