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| | Wednesday, October 6 | |||||
Special to ESPN.com | ||||||
| 1. The Pedro factor I think you have to pitch Pedro Martinez in Games 1 and 5. Last year, a lot of people were miffed at Jimy Williams for not starting Martinez in Game 4 against the Indians, but my inside sources say he couldn't have gone in Game 4 anyway -- and that he was questionable for Game 5. But Williams has to stick to his guns, and he has been giving Martinez plenty of rest all season. Now, you assume Martinez is going to win. But in baseball, you can't assume anything. Last year everybody expected Randy Johnson to win for the Astros, but Kevin Brown outpitched him. Still, Pedro expects to win and the Red Sox expect him to, too. Bartolo Colon will have to shut down the Sox to give the Indians a chance. I had an interesting conversation recently with Mike Shannon, the Cardinals' broadcaster. He came up with the Cardinals and played with Bob Gibson and against some of the greatest pitchers of all time, such as Sandy Koufax and Tom Seaver. He has been broadcasting for 28 years. He said that Pedro is the best pitcher he has ever seen. He said he's got that third pitch that makes him so incredibly tough. A lot of the great pitchers were primarily two-pitch pitchers. It was fastball, slider for Steve Carlton. Seaver was mostly fastball, slider. Nolan Ryan was fastball, curveball. Randy Johnson is hard fastball, hard slider. None of those guys had the changeup that Martinez has. He can go from a 95-mph fastball to a 78-mph changeup. As Warren Spahn once said, hitting is timing and pitching is the art of upsetting that timing. With Pedro, you just literally have to sit on a pitch, because you won't be able to adjust. I've thought about what Shannon said the past few days and I have to agree. 2. Cleveland's rotation Colon, more than likely, will be matched up against Martinez, so he'll have to pitch well. He missed a start recently with tendinitis, so the Indians have to hope his shoulder is sound. He matched up three times with Pedro this season and went 0-2 with a no-decision, even though he allowed just seven runs in those three starts. Overall, he's 0-3 against the Red Sox this year. Jaret Wright remains an unknown quantity. In his last start, he allowed six runs in less than three innings. The pleasant surprise for the Indians had been his two starts prior to that. He was miserable before that and looked like he wouldn't be able to contribute anything to the postseason, then he had two excellent starts, allowing one run in both starts and just three hits in 12 innings. He could be the surprise in the playoffs -- everybody remembers what he did in '97. Wright will probably go in Game 4, as Mike Hargrove will pitch Charles Nagy in the second game and Dave Burba in the third. 3. Cleveland's bullpen Steve Karsay and Ricardo Rincon need to pitch well. I saw Rincon recently and he looked very good. He has allowed just one run in his last 13 outings. Overall, the Indians' bullpen, which was supposed to be the team's strength, has been a disappointment. Steve Reed has battled physical problems all season. Karsay went on the disabled list. Mike Jackson hasn't been quite as dominating as he has been in the past. Paul Assenmacher really had a horrible year and might not even make the postseason roster. 4. Little ball? The key to the Indians' offense is that if the first three guys get on, you're deep in trouble. You've got Manny Ramirez, David Justice, Richie Sexson and Jim Thome coming up after that. Obviously, a lot of thunder. The amazing thing about Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel and Roberto Alomar is that they take walks and they're the three best bunters in baseball. The third baseman has to play shallow, which opens up opportunities. I know Mike Hargrove really stressed "little ball" in spring training, but they've had so many injuries they've rarely had their regular eight guys out there. Fundamentally, they're very strong. Roberto Alomar is as fundamentally sound as any player in the game. Sandy Alomar doesn't make mistakes. Lofton may run a bad route every now and then, but he recovers with his great speed. But I don't know how sound Travis Fryman is. Overall, I don't really know if the Indians are the best "little ball" team in the playoffs. I think the Rangers and the Yankees may be a little more fundamentally sounds in those close games. 5. Fragile right arms I believe Bret Saberhagen will be effective as long as he has enough rest. He can still tune up a good one. You just can't count on sending him out there every fifth day during the postseason. He needs his rest, which is why Boston will find it more difficult to win a seven-game series than a five-game series. But in the first round, if you think Martinez will win twice, you have to win only one of the other three games and Saberhagen is certainly capable of doing that. Ramon Martinez has also entered Boston's postseason with two quality outings down the stretch. Like Saberhagen, you have to be careful, so at some point the Sox will need something from Kent Mercker or Pat Rapp or Tim Wakefield. ESPN's Dave Campbell will be covering the playoffs on ESPN Radio. | ALSO SEE Campbell: Five keys for Yankees-Rangers
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