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Look back at: Divisional Playoffs |
League Championship
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Thursday, October 19
Mets-Yanks could be a real classic
By Dave Campbell
Special to ESPN.com
There is an old saying -- everyone has an opinion, and in New York they have two. That has never been more true than right now. The New York fan is going to be more emotional about their team than analytical, especially in this World -- Subway -- Series.
Momentum really has no carryover in baseball. The Yankees lost 13 of their last 15 games and yet, in my opinion, are the slight favorite going into the World Series. The Mets are going to the World Series, although they had a pretty miserable early September. Even though they won nine of their last 11 games, several of those wins came against teams that were basically out of it. San Francisco, Seattle and Oakland played great down the stretch in September, but the Giants and A's were eliminated in the first round while the Mariners were sent home in the second round.
|  | | Bernie Williams is hitting .349 through the first two rounds of the playoffs. |
The Yankees are like a vampire. If you're going to kill them off, you have to drive a stake through their heart and then stand there for 30 minutes just to make sure they're really dead. This team has a lot of desire and they find ways to win. And it doesn't hurt that they have the most dominating closer in postseason history in Mariano Rivera.
It's hard to believe George Steinbrenner has the longest tenure of any owner in baseball. It has taken him a long time to somewhat relinquish the reins and allow his baseball people to make the baseball decisions. For a long while he thought the way to win was to go out and sign the most attractive free agents. Conversely, in the early days, the Yanks traded away most of their good prospects.
But the key to this Yankee championship run, in addition to having deep pockets, has been their ability to develop the nucleus of this team -- Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera -- in their own system. Then signing and developing a key player from Cuba in Orlando Hernandez. Two great starting pitchers, the best closer in the game, a clutch center fielder and a team captain at shortstop --that is an amazing core of talent to come out of your own organization.
The Yankees' baseball people -- from GM Brian Cashman on down -- have made outstanding decisions this year. Their depth has been so important in the postseason -- the Yankees continue to win at least one key postseason game because of the depth of their bench or bullpen. The depth of their team can be attributed to not them not being afraid of having the highest payroll in baseball. You can carry quality players, who know they'll be expected to perform under pressure, on your bench if you're willing to pay them $2-4 million to be role players.
The Yankees picked up seven players after June 1 who have all been instrumental. Jose Vizcaino has been a dependable ultility infielder, Glenallen Hill had his incredible hot stretch in late July and early August, Jose Canseco even made his mark, Luis Sojo has played a solid second base in place of the undependable Chuck Knoblauch, and of course, David Justice has been the biggest key. The Yankees have more scouts than any team in the American League and they take input from everybody. This organization is a well oiled-machine right now and Steinbrenner, even though he can still get upset when the team is losing, has listened to his baseball people, especially manager Joe Torre, a lot more than he ever did before.
The Mets, on the other hand, were so close a year ago. This year, they have four big run producers and a huge surprise in Timo Perez. And with their two left-handed starters -- Al Leiter and Mike Hampton -- I give them a strong shot against the Yankees. Assuming it's going to be Leiter vs. Pettitte in Game 1 and Hampton vs. Clemens in Game 2, the series will shift to Shea Stadium with the series tied at one game apiece.
At that point, the advantage goes to the Yankees in that they'll have El Duque pitching in Games 3 and 7. Despite the fact that he wasn't his sharpest in the clinching game against Seattle on Tuesday, Hernandez still gets the advantage over whomever the Mets throw in Game 3, be it Rick Reed, Bobby Jones or Glendon Rusch. With Mariano Rivera never giving anything up and Armando Benitez having a history of giving up big hits late in the games, the Yankees are the favorite.
If Clemens pitches Game 2, that sets him up for Game 6 as well, which means he will pitch both times at Yankee Stadium. Pettitte's never been afraid to pitch on the road so he would pitch Game 5. With all the Mets' right-handed batters, Torre might dust the mothballs off David Cone and decide to start him in Game 4, but he'll probably decide against that and stick with Denny Neagle. Bobby Valentine is going to have to decide if he wants to keep Rusch in the bullpen or give him a start in place of either Reed or Jones.
You have to admit the Yankees are somewhat vulnerable to left-handed pitching, especially with Jorge Posada -- a switch-hitter who is stronger from the left side -- along with Justice, Paul O'Neill and Tino Martinez, who are all lefties. Valentine, like Torre, has a tendency to be loyal so Reed and Jones will probably go in Games 3 and 4 respectively; but Valentine may surprise and decide to start Rusch. After the lack of success of pitchers starting on three days' rest, neither manager will try to get three starts out of their top guys.
Even though Torre is managing in the American League with the DH, he had several years experience managing the Mets, Braves and Cardinals in the NL earlier in his managerial career. The Yankees have had tremendous results in the postseason at National League parks -- Torre and the Yanks are 8-0 in postseason play in NL parks in the last three years. Both Torre and Valentine are very, very strategic managers and neither one is going to outfox the other guy. Each team also knows the other very well because they play in the same city.
Don't be surprised to see this series go seven games. The Mets get a slight advantage from the lefty presence of both Hampton and Leiter, but because they only have Timo Perez and Robin Ventura hitting from the left side, they will be at a disadvantage against Clemens and El Duque. Perez, however, could be the X-factor in the series for the Mets because if they want to continue their success in the first inning of games -- they have scored 16 runs combined in the first inning of their nine postseason games -- Perez needs to get on base, like he's done thus far in the playoffs. If they can continue to get the early jump it would be beneficial to them.
And with all the left-handed pitching the Mets have, you might well see Canseco in this World Series. Because Hampton and Leiter figure to start at Yankee Stadium, Canseco could get a start as the Yanks' DH. They may do this because Canseco is not a good bench player as he has called himself the worst pinch-hitter in history. I don't, however, see Valentine changing his lineup to get guys like Lenny Harris, Matt Franco or Darryl Hamilton into the lineup. Valentine will probably stay loyal to Jay Payton and Benny Agbayani, who have played in all nine postseason games.
But as is the case in sports, you just never know. That's why they play the games.
Dave Campbell will be covering the World Series for ESPN Radio.
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