Rumblings and Grumblings

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Friday, September 6
 
Baseball must turn to promoting the game

By Jayson Stark
ESPN.com

It may not be true that Bud Selig reads every word written about his sport by anyone with a printing press in the 48 contiguous states.

It's possible Bud once missed a letter to the editor about him by Uncle Leo Poundstone in the Big Fork Eagle in Montana in 1997.

But whatever, we know our commissioner cares very deeply about what people write, say and think about him and the game he loves. So we hope he's been taking notes on what has been written, said and thought about him and his sport in the week since baseball (we interrupt this program) did not go on strike.

Randy Johnson
Randy Johnson is one of the many players who makes baseball a special game.

The games may have continued. The catastrophe may have been averted. Labor history may have been made. But in the last week, we've seen all these adjectives hung on a sport that deserves better -- by writers and fans who have been turned off by eight years of labor strife, player-bashing, financial despair and general bad vibes:

    "Boring ... irrelevant ... smug ... greedy ... slow."

And that's not all. We've heard and reads that kids don't care anymore, that players can't play, that the game's just a big steroid-injected homerfest, that a big-league game is now unaffordable and that much of America has realized it can live without the best sport ever invented.

But outside of that, everybody's happy.

OK, those are clearly not unanimous opinions. But if anybody is thinking them, writing them, uttering them or reading them, the biggest job baseball has, now that it's achieved labor peace, is to let those baseball-haters out there know that they're missing out on something fun, exhilarating and special.

Here are some of the messages we'd send if we were running baseball's marketing campaign:

1. The game is great
Boring? Irrelevant? What are these people watching (or not watching?) There is no other sport that produces the infinite possibilities, never-ending plot lines and cerebral joys that baseball does. None. Think about the last week or so:

Kerry Wood struck out four hitters and hit a home run in the same inning. A starting pitcher (Aaron Myette) threw two pitches all night and still got charged with a walk. A guy with more than 2,400 hits (Mark Grace) made his pitching debut. A shortstop (A-Rod) hit his 50th homer. The Phillies whiffed into a triple play. And the team that began the season with the 29th-highest payroll in baseball (the A's) won its 20th game in a row -- after blowing an 11-0 lead.

Maybe it's just us, but all of that's way more interesting than a 24-second violation.

The players are great
We keep hearing how players today can't play like they did in the olden days. Give it a rest.

You can go to a game these days and see the player who has scored the most runs in history (Rickey Henderson), a 6-10 left-hander with the fourth-most strikeouts in history (Randy Johnson), a shortstop who has hit 50 homers two years in a row (A-Rod) and a pitcher with the best winning percentage since World War II (Pedro Martinez).

Or you can see a six-time Cy Young award-winner (Roger Clemens), a 600-homer man (Barry Bonds), the greatest offensive catcher of all time (Mike Piazza) and the first team since World War 1 to start two pitchers who are at least 100 games over .500 (Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine).

In Babe Ruth's day, the game was played by a whole lot of slow white men. Players today are far better athletes and are vastly more culturally and ethnically diverse than they are in any other major sport. Let's broadcast that to the world, huh?

So this isn't an embarrassing age for baseball. In many ways, it's a golden age.

The players love the game
Please, no more talk about how players today don't care the way they did when you were a kid.

Most players today understand exactly how lucky they are to get paid what they do to play a game they love. That's one reason they're not on strike right now.

If fans had any clue how many players get to the ballpark five hours before game time, they'd be stunned.

The game today includes some not just some of the best players ever to play, but some of the best people playing any major sport. There's no reason men like Cliff Floyd, Tom Glavine, Todd Helton, Jeff Bagwell, Scott Rolen, Carlos Delgado, Nomar Garciaparra, Mariano Rivera, Omar Vizquel, Trevor Hoffman, etc., etc. shouldn't be on every kid's Most Admired Athletes list -- except that baseball has done such a great job of keeping them so top-secret.

Let's compare the number of felony charges filed against baseball players with the rap sheets on those NBA and NFL icons. That's a stat that tells you more about baseball players today than OPS.

4. Business ain't so bad, either
We often wonder how much abuse the sport of baseball would take if it went seven years without a team in the second-largest city in the country.

Or if it moved a team out of the fourth-largest city in America to, say, Tennessee.

Or if it played the World Series in a neutral site, and played the All-Star Game on an island 5,000 miles from some of its biggest cities.

Or if the trading deadline came and went but nobody got traded.

We are led to believe these days that the NFL can do no wrong and baseball can do no right. But in fact, baseball is judged far more harshly than any of the other sports.

A lot of that is baseball's own fault, obviously. But it's time for the sport of baseball to remind people it isn't as big a disaster as it often portrays itself.

It's more affordable than those other sports. It has the greatest history of any sport.

You don't have to wade through a week of hype waiting for somebody to actually throw a pitch. It's bursting with cool and beautiful ballparks that blend into the fabric of their cities and neighborhoods. And we'll stack up baseball's competitive-balance record with the NBA's any time anyone wants to play that game.

To sell baseball, no one needs to reinvent the wheel. Just shine up the prettiest wheels in sports and roll them down every street corner. Do us that favor: Let's try it and see what happens.

Labor agreement rumblings
No one really knows yet how the new labor deal will affect anybody or anything. But the early line is that, aside from the Yankees, the two teams facing a real financial impact are the Mets and Red Sox.

"This could really hurt Boston," said one prominent baseball man. "They've got no new park. They're locked into limited attendance and limited revenues. They paid a fortune for the team. They're in a big market and already charging big prices. This could really inhibit what they do. They won't have to pay the tax, but their revenue-sharing hit could really affect them. I think they're hurt more than the Yankees."

According to baseball sources, the Red Sox revenue-sharing bill goes up a projected 50 percent next year, from about $16 million to about $24 million. They have contracts to negotiate, not that far down the road, with Nomar Garciaparra and Pedro Martinez. So they have very little flexibility in the near future.

The Mets, meanwhile, have a huge payroll, barely dodged the luxury-tax group this year, have serious on-field problems to address, have an owner (Fred Wilpon) who just negotiated a big buyout of his partner (Nelson Doubleday) and are facing the third-largest revenue-sharing hit in the sport. They go from about $16 million to a projected $25-million payout next year.

"And remember," said another baseball official, "that goes up the next two years. It's only 60 percent (of the full revenue-sharing load) next year, 80 percent the year after that. Then it goes to 100 percent. That's a big hit."

The five teams whose revenue-sharing bills go up the most next year (based on projected revenues): Yankees (up about $16 million), Mariners (up about $10 million), Mets (up about $9 million), Red Sox (up about $8 million) and Indians (up about $6 million). For the full details, click here.

  • Examine that revenue-sharing chart closely, and you might notice something: While small-market teams like the Expos, Twins and Marlins will GET the most money, they aren't helped the most by this deal.

    It's those middle-market teams that will feel the biggest difference. The White Sox and Astros, for instance, pay a significantly lower revenue-sharing bill (by $1.9 million and $1.5 million respectively) than they did under the previous system.

    And which teams will see their revenue-sharing windfall increase the most? Try not to notice it's a virtual tie between the Pirates and the commissioner's favorite hometown team -- at an additional $5.9 million in baseball welfare per year.

  • Not that those Brewers were already counting their money or anything. But when they traded Mark Loretta to Houston right after the labor deal was announced, they actually gave money (reportedly $300,000) to Houston to help pay Lorretta's salary, according to one baseball official.

  • We're already hearing major rumblings that a number of small- and middle-market teams are complaining privately they're not getting enough help from this labor deal -- and that they don't intend to increase payroll next year.

    Grumblers most often mentioned: the Marlins, Royals and White Sox.

    But even though there was no minimum payroll established in this agreement, the spirit of it -- the relentless spin sold to the public -- was that it was all in the name of helping competitive balance. So if the Royals and Marlins, in particular, don't spend their 20 million revenue-sharing bucks a year on big-league players within the next couple of years, we have every right to call them on it.

  • Twins people, on the other hand, are saying that while this new deal may not help them add any major players without a new ballpark, it should help them keep their current team together. At the top of their agenda will be re-signing the likes of Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, David Ortiz and Doug Mientkiewicz. And that is the spirit in which this deal was made.

    On the down side, there are worries in Minnesota that, by removing the immediate threat of contraction, baseball also has removed the community's sense of urgency to keep working on a new ballpark. Someone ought to remind the governor and legislators they'd said they wouldn't commit to a new park without a reform in baseball's economics. Well, what's this?

    Miscellaneous rumblings

  • The baseball payroll accountants have made one fascinating change. In the past, if the Blue Jays traded Raul Mondesi to the Yankees and picked up half of his contract, the accountants calculated that the Yankees' payroll would be charged with Mondesi's whole contract. No more.

    Now each team will be assigned the percentage of the contract they're really paying. So when it comes time for the Yankees to be sent their luxury-tax bill, they won't be taxed for Mondesi's entire contract -- just the portion they're paying.

  • But there will also be another change in calculating payrolls that may affect whether a team just under the tax threshold -- such as the Red Sox or Mets -- will sign a young player to a multiyear contract to buy out his arbitration years.

    In the past, teams could backload those deals, and their current year's payroll number would reflect only the actual money being paid out that year, plus the prorated signing bonus. Under the new accounting system, the payroll number will reflect the annual average of the player's long-term contract.

    So say, for example, the Red Sox are $1 million under the threshold and sign Casey Fossum for $400,000 next year, $2.8 million the next and $4 million the next. Under the old system, they would be charged just $400,000 on the first year's payroll. Under the new deal, they would be considered to be over the threshold -- because the average annual salary of a three-year, $7.2-million contract is $2.4 million.

  • The new jump in the minimum payroll, from $200,000 to $300,000 is great for young players. But several agents fear teams will just take the additional money they're paying rookies out of the offers they would normally make to bench players and set-up men. So some of those $600,000 players could become $500,000 or $400,000 players next year.

  • One trade that came close to going down before the Aug. 31 waiver-trade deadline: Steve Trachsel to the Astros. But they couldn't agree on which prospects the Mets would get back.

  • Pedro Martinez's current injury may well be to his (pick one) hip or groin. But two scouts we surveyed continue to have worries about the health of Pedro's shoulder.

    "I've never seen him sling the ball with so much effort the way he has this year," said an NL scout. "I know he can still get it up there pretty good, and the results are great. But he's got something in his shoulder. I'd bet my life on it."

    And one AL advance scout said: "I have a hard time believing he's got just a groin injury. His velocity last time out was 89 to 92, and that's not Pedro. He reached back a few times when he had to have it. But he did it as little as possible."

  • Rumblings coming out of Philadelphia are that the Phillies are gearing up to try to acquire a big-time power bat at first base this winter to complement Pat Burrell. Jim Thome would probably top their list if he's interested. But if the Blue Jays continue to try to market Carlos Delgado, the Phillies undoubtedly would at least listen. Manager Larry Bowa has already said publicly that if Travis Lee is just going to be a 10-homer-a-year man, "you've gotta make a change."

  • The Phillies are not going to lack for trade bait, either. With Mike Lieberthal locked up, they can market an all-star Triple-A catcher in Johnny Estrada. They also can shop Jeremy Giambi to any AL team looking for a high-on-base-percentage DH. They would gladly move Lee at this point. And with all their minor-league pitching depth (Gulf Coast League RHP Elizardo Ramirez had a 73/2 K/BB ratio), they're one of the few clubs with pitching prospects to deal.

  • The Mets are going to need all the creativity Steve Phillips has in him to get themselves out of their current payroll/talent bind. They'll almost have to shop Roberto Alomar, because it will be tough to find anyone interested in taking on Mo Vaughn's contract.

    "It's painful to watch Mo," said one scout. "He can't even stretch for a ball. He's gotta come off the bag and try to make a tag. That's a big part of their defensive problems, to me. The guy I'd trade is Alomar if I were them. They've got to do something to shake it up, and somebody would bite on him on the last year of his contract. I guarantee you that."

  • It's still hard to believe the Mariners have lost 12 games in the standings to Oakland since the All-Star break. But one scout's review of them is: "They've gotten old in a hurry. The heat of August really showed the age of guys like Edgar, Olerud and Moyer. Last year, a lot of their guys had great years, and a lot of their guys stayed healthy. That hasn't happened this year. And they really miss the leadership of (Stan) Javier and (Jay) Buhner."

  • Kevin Brown seems like a great bullpen weapon for the Dodges, in theory. But one scout who has followed the Dodgers lately isn't so sure.

    "He still doesn't look right to me," the scout said. "He's really flying open. He's not staying behind the ball. And he's rushing. Give him the offseason to recover some more, and I'm still not sure he'd be the old Kevin Brown. But at least he'd be a solid starter."

  • The same scout's nomination for most improved player in the National League in the second half: Adrian Beltre.

  • One of the big questions in the AL, as we head down the stretch, is: Is the Angels' rotation built for October?

    As well as Jarrod Washburn has pitched and as hot as Kevin Appier has been, one AL scout still says: "That kid, (John) Lackey, is the best pitcher they've got, for me, to match up with the good teams in the playoffs. Washburn pitches up so much, I think the Yankees or A's could get his pitch count up to 100 by the sixth inning and get him out of there. Lackey has great poise and great upside. He just has a tremendous feel for pitching for a guy that young."

  • Finally, just in case anybody is still disputing the notion that baseball never fully recovered from the last strike, loyal reader David Hallstrom did the math. He found that nine teams -- the White Sox, Royals, Twins, Blue Jays, Braves, Rockies, Marlins, Phillies and Expos -- have never reached the attendance level they were at the season before the '94 strike. And it's eight years later.

    Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com.








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