There's nothing we all like better on a steamy day in July than talking everybody's favorite baseball topic -- modern economics. So put down those standings. Dejuice those baseballs. And let's ruminate on that blue-ribbon panel.
The Good
The best news in that panel's report is: It didn't recommend a salary cap. And we all know there's a better chance of selling snowmobiles in Panama than selling a hard salary cap to the union.
"Obviously," said union chief Don Fehr, "the fact that there's no mention of a hard cap is welcome. That's not a battle we particularly wanted to fight again."
On the other hand, Bud Selig tap-danced away from being bound to that recommendation by the panel. But as one ownership source said, "It's very difficult to ask the union for a salary cap when your own panel didn't recommend one."
So if the two sides can start their labor talks by discussing tax systems -- which were the basis for their last deal -- instead of caps, at least there's hope for no work stoppage.
The second-best news is: minimum payrolls.
What was the worst flaw in the last labor deal? Easy question. Easy answer: No payroll floor.
In other words, there wasn't one word in that agreement to stop teams like the Expos and Twins from taking their revenue-sharing money and stuffing it into a secret compartment in their wallets.
Can't have that. And if owners listen to this panel -- which recommended a $40-million floor -- we won't have that.
"If we're giving up something like half our local revenue," said a large-market source, "then the small markets have to give up something, too. The whole idea of the last agreement was having a tax to give those teams money to spend on players. And they haven't spent it on players."
Small-market owners are already grumbling about this. But we can assure them that if there's no minimum payroll, their big-market buddies won't want to give them a dime next time around.
Our final favorite item in this panel's report: a brand new draft. The eight worst teams get to draft players off the rosters of the eight best teams. Not just revenue sharing -- talent sharing.
We've been a booster of this concept for a long time. Once, the Rule Five draft served this purpose. But that was before expansion to 30 teams meant 1,200 players were protected in that draft.
So now we'd have -- ta-taaaa -- the competitive-balance draft. And we can't think of one bad thing about that idea.
The Bad
One not-so-minor hitch in this report: It was billed by ownership as "independent." But this panel didn't involve the union in any significant way. And that's an open invitation for the players to be skeptical about anything and everything in these findings.
As Fehr noted pointedly, "all the information -- short of one hour with me a year ago -- came from the clubs. So it's not something that represents a mutual effort."
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List of the week
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Troy Glaus is on a pace to become the first third baseman to hit 50 homers in a season. SABR's David Vincent submits this list of most homers in a season by a third baseman:
Mike Schmidt, 1980, 48
Eddie Mathews, 1953, 47
Eddie Mathews, 1959, 46
Vinny Castilla, 1998, 46
Mike Schmidt, 1979, 45
Chipper Jones, 1999, 45
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There's nothing illegal, immoral or even fattening about that. But if ownership really wanted to produce a report that laid the groundwork for a new labor deal, it would have made sure the union was far more involved.
The second problem we see is a whole new tax system that gives lots of money to the middle-market teams that used to go only to the small-market teams. The panel recommended taking 40 to 50 percent of each team's local revenues and dumping it into a big revenue-sharing fund. Then all 30 teams would get an equal share of that account.
Before, the system was weighted so that the small-market teams got more of the payout. Under this system, the middle-market clubs would get just as much money from that pot as they would.
That plan may get more votes. But the small-market clubs will hate it because they want the money. And the big-market clubs will hate it because they'd be helping to fund teams that represent the biggest threats to their domination.
So there should be a heck of a brawl over that one.
Our final major reservation about this report is this: If the whole idea was to address the payroll disparity between the Yankees of the sport and the Expos of the sport, why set an $84-million tax threshold and a $40-million minimum payroll?
"If the idea is to establish competitive balance," said one management skeptic, "this doesn't accomplish that. If you don't pay a tax until you reach $84 million and the minimum payroll is $40 million, you're starting with more than a two-to-one disparity."
The Ugly
Fortunately, this report doesn't represent an official labor proposal, because as best we could tell, very few bigwigs on either side were rushing to endorse it.
The union already has questioned why a study of teams' losses would include the '94-95 strike seasons. Obviously, everybody lost a bundle back then.
And the large-market clubs -- especially the Yankees -- will put up a big fight over giving up close to 50 percent of their local revenue. George Steinbrenner is about to start his own Yankees cable TV network. Think he wants to donate half the profits to the Expos -- a team that has no TV contract?
And while nobody questions the fact that these payroll disparities are hurting baseball, the report doesn't even address the fact that players are taking home a far lower percentage of the overall revenues than they were 10 years ago. Player salaries once were over 60 percent of the overall take. Now they're closer to 50 percent. Somewhere along the line in these next labor talks, you can bet that will come up. Probably within the first five minutes.
So we admire the time, the effort and the expense receipts turned in by that blue-ribbon panel. We appreciate their fascinating research and applaud some of their innovative ideas.
But if it's OK with everyone else, we'd like to go back to calculating Russell Branyan's home-run ratio now. Wake us up when you've got that economic thing solved.
Assorted rumblings
Curt Schilling has turned up the pressure on the Phillies to deal him. But let's examine the clubs to which he has told the Phillies he would agree to be dealt: the Yankees, Mets, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Indians or Braves. The Braves and Yankees already have made their pitching moves. So they're out. And the Phillies have told the other clubs they would have to be overwhelmed to trade Schilling. The Indians don't want to mortgage the future on a season that might be a lost cause. The Cardinals' starting pitching has been one of their biggest strengths. And the Mets wouldn't seem to match up with the Phillies very well. So the options are limited. And the likelihood of Schilling being dealt now remains extremely remote.
The Yankees aren't done. They continue to hunt for another right-handed bat to play left field in the wake of Shane Spencer's injury. But they won't go for any high-ticket items. And since they don't seem too high on Ron Gant, they'll just bide their time to see who becomes available in the next two weeks.
And the Reds aren't done. Clubs that have spoken with them say the Reds would talk about everyone except Ken Griffey, Pokey Reese and Danny Graves. And the Barry Larkin rumors (Dodgers?, Diamondbacks?) are everywhere.
Larkin wants three years, $28 million from the Reds. When the counter is three years, around $18 million, it tells you he might not be back.
One rumor bouncing around this week: Charles Johnson going from Baltimore back to the Marlins for young arms.
Before the Yankees dealt for Denny Neagle, they considered two less-expensive options: Andy Ashby and Steve Trachsel. But the Yankees and Devil Rays may never make another deal. And the Yankees simply liked Neagle better than Ashby, who wouldn't have been a good fit in New York.
Incidentally, reports that the Yankees now have a $107-million payroll are based on the average annual value of the contracts of Neagle and David Justice. If you just figure actual dollars paid out this year, they're right around $100 million.
Wild pitches
That two-ballpark doubleheader last weekend in New York produced some tremendous trivia.
If you don't count the Federal League, the Yankees became the first team to win two games in two parks against the same team on the same day since Sept. 4, 1899, when the Brooklyn Dodgers swept the New York Giants, 3-2 and 5-4.
And if you don't count the Federal League or Joel Youngblood's legendary trade from the Mets to the Expos in 1982, Chuck Knoblauch and Derek Bell became the first players to get hits in two parks in the same day since that fabled Sept. 7, 1903 Brooklyn-New York doubleheader. The Elias Sports Bureau's Ken Hirdt reports that the six players who did it that day were Jimmy Sheckard, Jack Doyle, Doc Gessler, Dutch Jordan, George Browne and Billy Lauder.
Knoblauch became the first to score a run in two parks in the same day since Sheckard.
And in the all-important Fastest Bus Ride from Shea to Yankee Stadium competition, the winner was ... the Yankees. They made it in 14 minutes. The Mets took 15.
Mike Hampton hit .311 last year and was over .300 again at the break. The last pitcher to hit .300 two straight years (minimum 40 at-bats), according to Elias: Don Newcombe, in 1958 (.361) and '59 (.305).
Kevin Young went into the All-Star break with 35 errors over the last two seasons. Elias reports that the last first baseman to commit 35 over two seasons was Willie Upshaw, for the 1983-84 Blue Jays. Five more E's, and Young could become the first to reach 40 over two years since Donn Clendenon, who clanked 52 for the 1965-66 Pirates.
Four Blue Jays hit 20 homers by the break. Thanks to the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR'S David Vicent, we know that as recently as 1992, only two players in the whole sport had 20 homers at the break (Mark McGwire and the great Rob Deer). Oh, and the Twins haven't had even one hitter with 20 at the break in 13 years (since Kent Hrbek hit 23 in 1987).
Pat Burrell reached the break with 33 RBI in only 176 plate appearances. That's one every 5.33 trips to the plate. Ken Hirdt reports that only four rookies in the last 25 years have had that many plate appearances and a better ratio: Phil Plantier for the '91 Red Sox (35 RBI, 175 PA, 5.00), Sam Horn for the '87 Red Sox (34 RBI, 177 PA, 5.21), Mike Greenwell for the '87 Red Sox (89 RBIs, 456 PA, 5.12) and Dan Graham for the '80 Orioles (54 RBI, 286 PA, 5.29).
The Dodgers' 11-0 loss to the Mariners last weekend was their worst to an AL team since they lost another 11-0 game to the White Sox (and Early Wynn) -- in Game 1 of the 1959 World Series.
Why did Andy Ashby want no part of coming back to Philadelphia? One reason was that in two stints with the Phillies, he won exactly two of his 17 career starts in Philadelphia. And the second came in his final start there, last Sunday. It was his first win with the Phillies at the Vet since April 11, 1992.
Doug Jones and Mike Morgan pitched in the same Oakland-Arizona game last weekend. The only other time two 40-year-olds pitched in the same game this season came when Morgan and Orel Hershiser matched up.
You know it's been a crazy year when three relief pitchers have hit a home run. Felipe Lira hit one off David Wells last weekend, joining Danny Graves and Gabe White in the Bullpen Trot Club.
And while we're on the subject of relievers and their offensive exploits, Mets reliever Eric Cammack tripled in his first major-league at-bat. The last pitcher to do that, according to Elias: Scott Munninghoff, for the Phillies on April 22, 1980. Munninghoff never got another hit, but he only pitched in four games in the big leagues.
The Valley Tribune's Ed Price reports that a study by Elias shows that Alex Cabrera this season became only the second player ever to start his career with a home run followed by a triple. The other was Frank Ernaga of the Cubs, who got both hits off Warren Spahn on May 24, 1957, and then got only 10 more hits in his career.
Elias reports that David Wells just became the ninth left-hander in history to win 15 games by the All-Star break. The last was Randy Jones (16-3) in 1976. The others: Hal Newhouser (1946); Whitey Ford (1961); Sandy Koufax (1965 and '66); Vida Blue (1971); Wilbur Wood (1972-74); Mickey Lolich (1972) and Ken Holtzman (1973).
But if Wells is thinking about winning 30, he should know that since Denny McLain, the only two pitchers to win 15 after the break have been LaMarr Hoyt (15-2 for the '83 White Sox) and Bret Saberhagen (15-2 for the '89 Royals).
No one was happier to see the end of interleague play in NL parks than Orlando Hernandez. He went 0-for-9, with seven strikeouts.
Whiffathon of the week: In that 15-inning Tigers-Brewers game last weekend, Tigers pitchers struck out 20 Brewers, including six in a row at one point by reliever Nelson Cruz. Afterward, catcher Brad Ausmus wondered: "How many guys have been part of three 20-strikeout games?" Ausmus has. He hit against Roger Clemens and Kerry Wood in two 20-punchout games in the '90s. He caught this game.
Minor-league marathon of the week: Last Saturday in the Southern League, West Tennessee and Mobile finished the first 17 innings tied 0-0 before West Tennessee's Eric Hinske hit a three-run homer to win it in the 18th. Among the strange stuff that happened along the way: West Tennessee second baseman Franklin Font went 4-for-4 -- despite not even entering the game until the 13th inning. And the losing pitcher was infielder Brian Schmidt, who no doubt will be fined by his Kangaroo Court for not preserving the shutout.
Minor-league slump of the week, courtesy of our friends at Howe Sportsdata: Troy Cameron, the Braves' first-round pick in 1997, went 1-for-47 with 14 strikeouts from June 26 to July 12.
Mark McGwire just reached 30 homers at the break for the third time. The only other guys to do it more than once, according to David Vincent: Ken Griffey (three), Sammy Sosa (two) and (surprise) Willie Stargell (two).
You can cancel Al Leiter's membership in the Turner Field Fan Club. In Game 6 of the Mets-Braves playoff series last fall, he faced five hitters and retired none of them. Then he entered the All-Star Game, and the first three hitters reached base. That's eight in a row. Oh, and he was also the losing pitcher.
The Detroit Free Press' John Lowe has a view of history that goes beyond baseball. He couldn't help but notice that on the 4th of July (7-4-00), the team from the city that made July 4 a holiday (Philadelphia) won 7-4.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. Rumblings and Grumblings will appear each Saturday. | |
ALSO SEE
Jayson Stark archive
Stark: Week in Review
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