Being the futuristic baseball scientist that he is, Bud Selig is thinking
about tinkering with realignment again. Stop us if you've heard this one
before.
Among the latest options being considered:
Splitting the National League into two eight-team divisions instead of four
divisions of four teams each.
Keeping the American League in its current 5-5-4 format, except that each
division would have at least one new member. Arizona would replace Texas in
the four-team AL West. Texas would move to the five-team AL Central. And
either Detroit or Cleveland would shift to a five-team AL East, replacing
Tampa Bay (bound for the NL).
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Current realignment plan
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NL East
Mets
Expos
Pirates
Phillies
NL Southeast
Braves
Reds
Marlins
Devil Rays
NL Central
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Astros
NL West
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Rockies
AL East
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
AL Central
Indians
Tigers
Rangers
Royals
Twins
White Sox
AL West
A's
Angels
Diamondbacks
Mariners
Schedules
National League
20 games against each division opponent
9 games against each team in "sister" division (NL East-Southeast, NL
Central-West)
6 games against other NL teams
18 interleague games
AL East and West
18 games against each division opponent
9 games against other AL teams
18 interleague games
AL Central
15 or 14 games against each division opponent
9 games apiece against other AL teams
18 interleague games
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Got all that? Well, don't spend too much time memorizing it, because the
chances of either permutation actually happening are right up there with the
odds of Rey Ordonez winning the home-run title.
But Selig has his realignment committee studying all this because he's trying
to satisfy the critics of his previous realignment scheme -- which hasn't even
been passed yet.
The commish's original format would divide the NL into four geographically
correct four-team divisions -- with no wild card and heavily unbalanced
schedules that favored more intradivision games. The AL, meanwhile, would go to a 4-6-4 scheme, originally
conceived, we believe, by Buddy Ryan.
That plan is still a better bet for election than Al Gore. But among those
raising questions about all this is union chief Don Fehr. Oh, and stop us if
you've heard that one before, too.
Fehr has expressed two reservations about the new realignment scheme:
1) Does not having the wild card in the National League hurt interest in
the sport down the stretch?
2) Is it "fundamentally unfair" to have one six-team division (the AL
Central) and all other divisions with four teams?
"We're not saying, 'Don't do it,'" Fehr said. "We're just saying we've got to
look at it pretty closely."
So while the union is looking, Selig and his cohorts are also examining all
options. But they're not finding any good ones.
There are numerous problems with retaining that 5-5-4 breakdown in the AL.
And the most fundamental problem is this: Detroit and Cleveland would rather move to Switzerland than move back to the
AL East, from whence they came six years ago.
Unlike Arizona, which has no veto power as an expansion team, the Tigers and
Indians have been around 100 years. So if they say, "We won't go," that scenario
is closed.
The other problem is that 5-5-4 destroys the whole reason to realign the AL
in the first place -- to make the schedule more workable.
"Twenty-four years ago," Selig said, "we went to a balanced schedule in the
American League on a one-year trial -- and we never got back to (the unbalanced scheduled). To me,
that's unbelievable. We've got to get back to an unbalanced schedule. And
we've got to get Texas out of the West, into the Central."
No one thinks having two divisions of four teams and one division of six is a
perfect solution, either. But the scheduling gurus have told Selig that
having an even number of clubs in a division is more essential to baseball's
future than bats, balls and Rafael Furcal.
It's those odd numbers, you see, that cause teams to play so many games in
September against clubs out of their division, because one team always has to
be the "swing" team.
For instance, there may or may not be a Cleveland-Detroit race in the AL
Central this year. But if there is, it will be from afar -- because these two
teams don't play a single game against each other after June 26. And it's
that kind of scheduling which is under attack by the commish.
Then there's the National League. The Selig Peace Plan hasn't quite been
ratified there, either.
His original four-division NL scheme appeared to be all set, too. Arizona has
conceded it's going to the AL, whether it wants to or not. And the Reds are
believed to have indicated they will consent to leave their glamorous
McGwire-Sosa-Griffey-Bagwell division and move to an all-Eastern Time Zone
division with Atlanta, Florida and Tampa Bay.
So what's the problem there? No wild card.
It may have been a sacrilegious idea just a few years ago, but Selig says
baseball's polling shows that more than 80 percent of its fans now favor the
wild card. Bob Costas apparently hasn't been allowed to vote enough in those
polls.
So how could the NL be rezoned to preserve it? It wouldn't be easy.
Three divisions is out, because that creates a geographical mish-mosh that
Selig opposes. That means the only alternative is two divisions. And with two
divisions, you'd get two wild cards for the price of one.
But one big downside to that idea is that it wrecks those unbalanced schedules.
In a four-division schedule, NL teams would play clubs in their own division
20 times each. That plan would go up in smoke in an eight-team division, making for an unhappy commish.
So clearly, Selig is still in favor of four divisions, even if some folks think
it may be unfair to have a wild card in one league but not the other.
"There's nothing unfair about it," he says. "We've gone over and over this.
We think it's fair."
But what happens the first time that say, the Reds, win 101 games, still
finish behind the Braves and don't go to the playoffs because there's no wild
card?
"Oh, they'll be ranting and raving," Selig said. "I understand that."
In fact, they may rant and rave loud enough to pave the way for more teams in
the playoffs. Don't think that's impossible, either. But for now, at least,
Selig says: "I would hope not. I'm really not in favor of that."
No, he's got enough realignment options on his buffet. And they're a lot like
the weather in Milwaukee: Wait around long enough, and they're guaranteed to
change.
Jayson Stark is a senior writer at ESPN.com. | |
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