You've seen the commercial by now. It's 30 seconds of your life that you don't really want back, at least not the first dozen times you see it.

In this ad that debuted during the Super Bowl -- what did you expect, the Caribbean World Series? -- Barry Bonds is taking batting practice in a darkened stadium. Actually it's at The Ballpark in Arlington.

The Texas Rangers' home park was probably used because a) the rent was cheap, or b) the producer had a Jones for Joe T. Garcia's enchiladas. But we nevertheless will say it is because it foreshadows the last year of Bonds' career, when as a designated hitter he is closing in on the all-time home run record.

	Sammy Sosa Right field Chicago Cubs Profile
	CAREER STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI Avg. 1725 6470 1093 450 1239 .277

One ball after another flies into the seats as a ghostly voice keeps whispering to him that it's time to retire. The final scene shows Hank Aaron sitting in the PA booth and talking into the microphone.

It's great humor. Who knew that the Hammer could be a ham?

But there's one wee bit of a problem with the script. Aaron is trying to persuade the wrong slugger to retire.

Bonds has earned the attention that is currently focused on him after his historic 2001 season. It was one of the greatest ever by a hitter. But Sammy Sosa, not Bonds, is the active player with the best chance to surpass 755 career home runs.

It took two days to film the commercial. Bonds, who must have been paid quite a bit more than union scale to break up his Living Room Couch Over America tour, enjoyed the experience because he got to know Aaron. He especially enjoyed the part where Aaron gave him his blessing to break the record.

	Barry Bonds Left field San Francisco Giants Profile
	CAREER STATISTICS GM AB R HR RBI Avg. 2296 7932 1713 567 1542 .292

"He just told me to get all you can out of the game of baseball," Bonds said. "He said, 'I've had the record long enough. Records are meant to be broken, so if you have a chance to do it, then do it.' I didn't know what to say ... It's like, 'Really? Are you serious?' "

Bonds will turn 38 in July. He has 567 career homers.

Sure, he hit 73 last year but even with those 73 homers he's averaged 48 over the last four seasons. If he maintains that pace, he will pass Aaron late in the 2005 season, shortly after he has turned 42.

That would be a wonderful thing, especially for the San Francisco Giants. Their new contract with Bonds is guaranteed through '05, with an option for '06 guaranteed only if he is still going strong.

The trouble here is there is little margin for injury. Bonds has been among baseball's most dependable run-producers, driving in 100-plus runs 10 times, but he was limited to 143 games in 2000 and 102 in '99.

Sosa, on the other hand, has 450 career homers. That's 117 behind Bonds. But at 33, he's four years and four months younger than Bonds.

He has played three fewer seasons and, unlike the former Arizona State star, bounced back and forth between the minors and the majors in his early years with Texas, the White Sox and the Cubs.

Sosa has 450 career homers. That's 117 behind Bonds. But at 33, he's four years and four months younger than Bonds.

While Sosa led the National League in homers only once (with 50 in 2000), he is the only player in history with three 60-homer seasons. He has averaged just under 61 homers over the last four seasons. If he could maintain this unprecedented pace, he would catch Aaron at the end of 2006, which is only one year after we can project Bonds doing it based on his 1998-2001 pace.

But what are the chances of Sosa keeping it up? Logic says he's going to slow down, so let's say his production drops off 20 percent, to an average of 49 homers per season. Even if he does that, he would only need a little more than six seasons to pass Aaron. Under this scenario, he would hit No. 756 in the 2008 season. And that year he would be 39.

We need look no further than Mark McGwire to see how quickly a major injury could make this whole question moot. But even in that category, Sosa rates ahead of Bonds. Sammy has missed only 11 games the last five years, playing all 162 in 1997 and '99. He played 160 last season.

But back up. Do we really know that Sosa is 33? Couldn't he have played games with his birth certificate?

Well, yeah. But Sosa's agent, Adam Katz, says we can trust Sammy because "he is a truth-teller."

If you choose not to trust an agent, consider the chronology. Even though Sosa reached the big leagues at age 20, when the Texas Rangers promoted him from Double-A to play center field and hit leadoff -- we don't make these things up -- he has played, as mentioned earlier, three fewer seasons than Bonds.

The age difference between Bonds and Sosa is key to the calculations of Stats Inc., which for about a decade has published an annual table -- once known as "the favorite toy" -- ranking hitter's chances to set records and reach career milestones.

The current edition of Stats' Major League Handbook gives Sosa a 47-percent chance to break Aaron's record. Bonds is given a 43-percent chance, with Alex Rodriguez (27 percent) and Ken Griffey Jr. (10 percent) the only other players meriting serious consideration. For what it's worth, Stats Inc. gives Sosa a 35-percent chance to reach 800 homers compared to a 25-percent chance for Bonds.

There will be other Super Bowls and other clever commercials. The Hammer might want to start practicing saying "retirarse," the Spanish word for retire.

Phil Rogers is the national baseball writer for the Chicago Tribune, which has a web site at www.chicagosports.com.