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Sunday, October 28
 
Anderson joins short list of surprise starters

By Rob Neyer
ESPN.com

A look back to Game 2, and a look forward to Game 3 ...

    Rob, great column as (mostly) usual :-)

    I beg to differ with your last line in your Game 2 notes column, though. You're saying Torre made the wrong choice when he chose Luis Sojo rather than Nick Johnson for the World Series roster? Well, Torre wouldn't have run Nick Johnson up there against Randy Johnson in Game 2 even he were available ... because Nick's a left-handed hitter, and if Torre had wanted to use a lefty, Tino and O'Neill and Justice were all available. I don't think it made a bit of difference if he had Sojo or Johnson for that final roster spot.

    Maybe Torre could use a better right-handed pinch hitter, though. So maybe the better choice over Sojo was Gerald Williams ... who I think has a better chance against a lefty than Lucky Luis does.

    Just a thought ...

    Chris Reese
    Sussex, NJ

It was poor analysis on my part, Chris, because I didn't bother to remember that Nick Johnson is a left-handed hitter (assuming, of course, that that fact ever resided within my cranium at all). I'd still rather have Nick Johnson on my roster than Luis Sojo, but Nick Johnson is, indeed, not particular relevant to this specific situation.

At the moment of decision Sunday night -- top of the eighth inning, runners on first and second, one out -- Joe Torre had four right-handed hitters available: Enrique Wilson (a switch-hitter, actually), Todd Greene, Sojo, and Clay Bellinger. Here are those four, and their stats against left-handed pitchers over the last four regular seasons (I use four seasons because if we look just at this season, or even this season and last season, there just isn't enough data to tell us anything):

           AB   OBP  Slug
Wilson    270  .311  .426
Greene    191  .277  .367
Sojo      176  .296  .364
Bellinger  91  .234  .396

Gosh, not much to choose from here. And if any of you are wondering why the aforementioned Gerald Williams isn't on the World Series roster ... well, let's just say that his performance during the regular season didn't exactly merit his inclusion.

The real problem is that the Yankees' 40-man roster isn't what it should be. Most of the blame for this probably goes to the front office, but Torre gets a small share, too. After all, it's generally assumed that he has at least something of a say in personnel matters. And at some point this summer, Torre should have said to his GM, "You know what, Cash? When we get to the World Series, we could really use another right-handed-hitting outfielder with some pop, because this kid you got me from Tampa Bay isn't getting it done."

    Hey Rob,

    First off, I love the column. Your work is so sublimely brilliant that I find it manifestly unfair that your employers force you to work four days per week, and that they pay you such a pittance that you have to live in Seattle rather than someplace where the sun shines occasionally in the winter. Like Hawaii. Or Tuscany.

    But all that's neither here nor there. What I really want to know is, when's the last time a pitcher with numbers like Brian Anderson's started a World Series game?

    Sign me, a
    Soggy Scribe in Seattle

Thanks for the note, Soggy. Anyway, your question spurred me to some research.

Brian Anderson, as we all know quite well, didn't enjoy what you'd call a Cy Young season. Or even a Mike Young season. Anderson won four games, and lost nine. His 5.20 ERA was about 20 percent worse than the National League average. And after a couple of hours researching ever World Series, I can tell you that tonight Brian Anderson will become only the sixth pitcher in history to start a World Series after

  • winning four or fewer games in the regular season,

  • posting a losing record during the regular season, and

  • finishing that same regular season with an ERA higher than the league average.

    Here are the six pitchers, along with some other relevant information:

                    Team Year   W-L    ERA               
    Dizzy Trout      Det 1940   3- 7  4.46  
    Hal Gregg        Bro 1947   4- 5  5.88
    Ewell Blackwell  NYY 1952   4-12  4.73  
    Jim Rooker       Pit 1979   4- 7  4.59
    Tony Saunders    Flo 1997   4- 6  4.61
    Brian Anderson   Ari 2001   4- 9  5.20
    

    Dizzy Trout was a good pitcher who didn't have much luck in 1940, and spent most of the season pitching out of the bullpen. Three years later, he won 20 games; four years later, he led the American League with a 2.12 ERA.

    The only reason Trout started a World Series game is that in 1940, there weren't any off days scheduled. With Detroit playing Cincinnati, the teams could play one day, and reach the other city by train in time for a game the next day. Tigers manager Del Baker decided to give his No. 1 starter, Buck Newsom, three days' rest after Game 1, which meant he needed a No. 4 starter. So Dizzy Trout drew the assignment for Game 4, and got kayoed in the third inning. (Interestingly, Newsom pitched a shutout in Game 5, then came back for Game 7 after just one day of rest. He pitched well but lost 2-1.)

    Hal Gregg not only started a World Series game in 1947, he started Game 7 in 1947. Game 7 against the New York Yankees, with the Dodgers still trying to win their first World Series.

    This was, to say the least, something of a strange choice. Gregg had won 18 games in 1945, when he was only 23 ... but of course, that was a war year and most of the best baseball players were serving their country (or, if their skin was the “wrong” color, simply weren't allowed to play). The next year, with the good players once again wearing flannels rather than fatigues, Gregg's record dropped to 6-4, though in fairness his ERA also dropped to 2.99, which was a good thing. In 1947, though, Gregg's ERA skyrocketed to 5.87, nearly two runs higher than the NL average.

    So why did Gregg start Game 7 in the World Series? Brooklyn's two best pitchers in 1947 were Ralph Branca (21-12, 2.67) and Joe Hatten (17-8, 3.64). Branca started Game 1, and got knocked out in the fifth. Hatten started Game 3, and got knocked out in the fifth. A fellow named Harry Taylor started Game 4 for the Dodgers, and didn't get anybody out. After Taylor allowed three hits and a walk, in came Hal Gregg ... and he pitched seven solid innings; the Dodgers scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to win the game (and break up Floyd Bevens' bid for a no-hitter, but that's another story).

    So when Game 7 rolled around, no Dodger starter had lasted even five full innings; it was a near-miracle that the Series was still going. And so Dodgers manager Burt Shotton, desperate for someone to stop the Yankees, figured what the hell, and tabbed Gregg. Unfortunately, Hal Gregg couldn't stop the Yanks, either. Gregg got yanked in the fourth, having allowed three runs, and wound up taking the loss as the Yankees won yet another World Series. Gregg got traded to Pittsburgh after the season, and won three more games in the major leagues.

    From 1946 through 1951, Ewell Blackwell ranked among the most feared pitchers in the National League. He was huge for his era (six feet and six inches), he threw the ball 90-plus miles per hour, and you couldn't pick up the ball when he pitched it. National League Dixie Walker said that when Blackwell pitched, he looked "like a man falling out of a tree." But in 1952, all of a sudden, Blackwell lost it. He went 3-12 with a 5.38 ERA for the Reds, who traded him to the Yankees in late August. In those days the Yankees loved to pick up ex-National League star pitchers -- guys like Johnny Sain and Sal Maglie and Jim Konstanty -- for their stretch runs, and Blackwell fit the bill.

    Blackwell pitched 16 innings for the Yankees, allowing just one earned run. That earned him a start in Game 5 of the World Series, but the Dodgers touched him for four runs in five innings, and Brooklyn eventually won 6-5 in 11 innings.

    It was 27 years before another pitcher fitting our criteria started a World Series game. Jim Rooker is something like the opposite of Dizzy Trout. In 1940, Trout was a young pitcher just starting a great career. In 1979, Rooker was an old pitcher nearing the end of a good career. Good for 14 or 15 victories per season in the mid-'70s, Rooker dropped to nine wins in 1978 and then four in 1979.

    Nevertheless, Pirates manager Chuck Tanner chose Rooker to start Game 5 of the 1979 World Series. And at the moment Tanner's decision was announced, every Baltimore Oriole and every fan of the Baltimore Orioles quite likely got all warm and fuzzy inside, because the Orioles already led the Series, three games to one. And facing Rooker? Mike Flanagan, who had won 23 games (and eventually the Cy Young Award) during the regular season.

    Rooker didn't win, but he pitched well enough to win. When Rooker was bumped for a pinch-hitter in the bottom of the fifth, the Pirates trailed 1-0, but Bert Blyleven tossed four innings of shutout relief and the Pirates piled up seven runs in the late innings. They beat Flanagan, and then they won Games 6 and 7 to complete one of the greatest comebacks in World Series history. And it wouldn't have happened without surprise starter Jim Rooker.

    Things didn't go so well for Tony Saunders in 1997. Game 4 matched Florida's rookie southpaw against Jaret Wright, Cleveland's rookie northpaw. As you might remember, Wright pitched fairly well (six innings, three runs) and Saunders did not (two-plus innings, six runs), leading to an easy win for the Indians.

    Saunders pitched fairly well in 1998 but suffered terrible luck --he got traded to the Devil Rays, who didn't score any runs when he pitched -- and wound up 6-15. Then his luck got worse in 1999, when his left arm snapped. He is now retired.

    None of these five pitchers won their World Series start; as a group, they went 0-3 with a 8.15 ERA. So we might say that Brian Anderson vs. Roger Clemens marks the biggest World Series mismatch since 1979 ... when Jim Rooker pitched five solid innings to help his team beat the American League's Cy Young Award winner.

    Can history repeat itself? Sure it can. Of course, chances are pretty good that Anderson won't last five innings. But we don't know, and that's why we watch.

    Rob can be reached at rob.neyer@dig.com, and to order his new book, "Feeding the Green Monster", click here.






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