Is Warrick Dunn a poor man's Marshall Faulk? Can Shaun King compete with Kurt Warner?

	Bucs RB Warrick Dunn (above) has averaged five yards per carry since Mike Alstott went down. Alstott is expected back for Monday night's game.

Are the old Rams back? But didn't the Tampa Bay defense handle the old Rams in last year's NFC title game? Is this the Rams team that obliterated the Vikings? Or are they the same Rams who were more or less controlled by the more physical, disciplined defenses of the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers that have several traits in common with the Bucs?

Obviously, there is something very special about the matchup between the Rams and the Bucs. With all due respect to the Minnesota Vikings, I suspect that the winner of the Bucs-Rams game will emerge as the Super Bowl favorite.

Both the Rams and Bucs have whipped up fairly convincingly on the Vikings in the second half of the season. The Bucs did so by a 41-13 count on Oct. 29. The Rams dismantled Minnesota by a 40-29 count last Sunday.

The Vikings know one thing, for sure. Unless they blow a home game this week against the Packers -- who have won in Minnesota only once in the past nine years -- they will have home-field advantage through the playoffs. They are undefeated at home.

"That's OK," said Bucs coach Tony Dungy. "I'll take our chances up there. We scored 23 points the first time we played [in the Metrodome, Oct. 9)] and our offense is better right now."

The Bucs' offense is better because of one player -- Dunn, the 5-foot-8, 180-pound running back who has averaged 125 yards per game since Mike Alstott sprained his knee Nov. 19. Dunn has 948 yards rushing this season with a 4.5 average per carry.

"We've had to get him the ball now, and when we do he makes big plays, plays where he gets a breakout of 40 to 50 yards every game," said Dungy. "When he was sharing time [with Alstott], he averaged 3.3 yards a carry. Now he's at 5.0 the more he's getting the ball, meaning he's getting more chances to make the long run."

Dunn has split carries with Alstott over the past four-plus season, in part because of Alstott's own unique skills for a big back, combined with the idea that you can't pound a 180-pound back like Dunn 25 times a game, 16 games a season. Dunn seemingly has accepted his role, but Dungy reveals otherwise.

"Warrick's been asking for the ball more for the past four years," said Dungy. Only not Keyshawn-style.

"No," laughed Dungy. "Warrick's funny. He talks to my wife [Lauren], usually in the parking lot after games. He'll say, 'Tell your husband I'm not going to get hurt carrying the ball more. I'm not afraid.' "

Dungy said he didn't consider it unusual that Dunn, known for his humility and shyness, would not come to him more directly. "Barry Sanders used to do it that way," said Dungy. "When Tom Moore was running the offense in Detroit, he'd sneak into Wayne Fontes' office ... then Wayne would go to Tom and say, 'We've got to get Barry the ball more this week.' "

Alstott is expected to be in uniform this week. Dungy has indicated Alstott will return to his old role, but one must measure that definition. In the two or three games prior to his injury, Alstott's role was reduced in favor of Dunn, but Alsott would be used to consume the clock to protect a second-half lead.

"I still feel we could be successful the other way, with Mike carrying the load," said Dungy. "It just depends on the [opponent], whether we should play the inside game and pound the ball [with Alstott] or go the other way [with Dunn]. It's been easier because Warrick has gotten it by default. But I believe that we can get the same result, whether it's Mike or Warrick."

Dungy cited the success of big backs like Eddie George, and Ron Dayne to a lesser degree, as the case for Alstott. I respectfully dissented. The coach conceded that "there are tough questions to be answered," but Dunn has established himself. In an offense that has limited firepower because of a quarterback with limited throwing skills, Dunn as the primary threat is a vital necessity. Nobody should worry, according to personnel whiz Tom Donahoe, formerly of the Steelers.

"Warrick Dunn is a guy who everybody always says can't carry the load, and I've always wondered, 'Why not?'" said Donahoe. "Look, his track record is that he never really gets hurt and I think they're finding out that he can carry the load, that he has strength and durability, not to mention some great skills. I mean, that play he made in his own end zone [against Miami] to escape on the swing pass was amazing."

You wonder how Dunn would do in an offense like the Rams. Maybe he isn't quite Faulk, but I imagine Rams coach Mike Martz would have a little fun with Dunn in his backfield.

"Kurt Warner makes a big difference," said Dungy. "You can talk all you want about what Trent Green has done ... the Rams would not have done the same thing last year with Trent, who is capable of making some good throws. Warner makes 'em go, Warner and Faulk. When they don't turn the ball over, they're very explosive."

Yet it was the Bucs who last January went to St. Louis and did the improbable. They held a 6-5 lead before Warner connected on a last-minute touchdown with Ricky Proehl. The Rams won the NFC title game 11-6. It was almost unthinkable that any defense, even one as capable as Tampa Bay, could frustrate one of the great offensive machines, on their own field, nonetheless.

"I wasn't really surprised," said Dungy. "Now I don't anticipate us holding the Rams to six points this time around. As I said, they're very explosive, but we think we think we can slow 'em down. I don't think any offense is unstoppable, which was our message last year. I'm not sure we actually stopped them, but we made enough plays to keep 'em off the scoreboard and that's what we have to do this time around."

It was Dungy who pointed out that Carolina and New Orleans beat the Rams in recent weeks -- the Panthers by a similar, strong fundamental style of defense; the Saints with their Bucs-like aggression and spirited front four.

Dungy also senses what I sense: The winner of this game will walk away with an aura of being the true NFC favorite for the Super Bowl. Then again, he is careful to jump to any conclusions in a season that has made many an expert look foolish.

"Boy, I watch the Saints play with their defense and Aaron Brooks, and they're dangerous," said Dungy. "The Giants are on a roll. The Eagles with Donovan McNabb ... the Vikings have their great weapons. Everybody's up and down. It's who gets in, and who gets hot for three weeks in January. But this game here Monday night could be the one that builds that kind of momentum."