My eye doctor has this theory, and I tend to agree with him.

	Felix Trinidad, right, became the first to ever send Fernando Vargas to the canvas -- and he did it five times.

He says whomever finally wins the presidential election will turn out to be the loser. The way he sees it, the next four years won't be as prosperous compared to the past eight, and our country's next CEO -- whether it's his fault or not -- will go down in history as the guy who was handed the keys to a brand new BMW only to wrap it around a tree.

Sort of like George Bush Sr.

Or Mike Tyson. Come to think of it, Tyson actually did that.

My eye doctor's theory is based on the idea these men sought out a level of power they weren't ready to handle. Maybe it was poor timing. Maybe it was bad advice. But either way the specter of failure is pending.

	GRAHAM'S TOP 15
	Pound-for-pound 1. Felix Trinidad 2. Roy Jones 3. Shane Mosley 4. Lennox Lewis 5. Diego Corrales 6. Floyd Mayweather 7. Oscar De La Hoya 8. Erik Morales 9. Fernando Vargas 10. Naseem Hamed 11. Marco Antonio Barrera 12. Kostya Tszyu 13. Zab Judah 14. Mark Johnson 15. Paulie Ayala

Felix Trinidad should reflect on how a similar situation pertains to his life. The world's pound-for-pound best fighter must be careful not get too full of himself following his demolition of previously unbeaten champion Fernando Vargas.

The victory over Vargas on Dec. 2, unifying the WBA and IBF belts in the junior middleweight class, was thoroughly impressive. Trinidad scored five knockdowns -- two in the first minute of the fight and three more in the 12th round. He rose from the canvas himself in the fourth round and traded shots with his powerful foe.

But he stood strong, took Vargas' best shots and won a rousing bout that will go down as the fight of the year and make Trinidad the fighter of the year.

Now Trinidad is talking stupid, and it's not because of Vargas' power punches. Even before the Vargas fight Trinidad talked of challenging Roy Jones Jr., a dazzling performer many claim is the best out there.

What a mismatch that would be. Trinidad wouldn't stand a chance in a fight that would certainly ruin his undefeated record and take away his slowly mounting star power.

Boxing needs studs like Trinidad to help capture the public's imagination. The likes of Trinidad, Vargas, Oscar De La Hoya and Shane Mosley, all fighting between 147-154 pounds, can help recreate (on a smaller scale) the glory days of boxing when the rivalries of Robert Duran, Marvin Hagler, Thomas Hearns and Sugar Ray Leonard transcended the sport.

But that's not likely to happen.

You see, Felix Trinidad Sr. has had his son's career all mapped out for him even before the Vargas fight.

Don Felix, as the father is known, wants his son to move up from junior middleweight (154 pounds) to middleweight (160 pounds), presumably to fight either WBA champ William Joppy or IBF champ Bernard Hopkins.

After that, Don Felix wants his son to quickly move up in weight again to fight Jones at super middleweight (168 pounds). Jones is the undisputed light heavyweight (175 pounds) champ. He hasn't fought at super middle since 1996, but is such a physical specimen he probably could lose the weight with little trouble.

Yes, this is merely Don Felix's plan. But "Tito" has always done what his papa tells him. Don Felix has been his son's trainer and manager from the beginning, and he hasn't steered his son wrong yet.

Many thought Trinidad couldn't beat De La Hoya in their 1999 welterweight (147 pounds) unification bout. While De La Hoya easily outboxed Trinidad for almost the entire fight, De La Hoya lost a controversial decision by running in the latter rounds, as Trinidad started to land shots.

Many more thought Trinidad was warped for bolting up to junior middleweight and challenging David Reid, who was the WBA's undefeated champ and a 1996 Olympic gold medalist. But Trinidad worked Reid over, again rising from the floor to slobberknock his opponent in the late rounds.

		Jones would bewilder Trinidad with a mix of speed and power rarely seen in the sport. Jones would move in, land a flurry of punches and get out before Trinidad could lay a glove on him. It would be an ugly, one-sided beating.

What a run Trinidad has been on. In little over a year he beat three of the best pound-for-pound fighters in two different weight classes. He also scored a decision victory over future Hall of Famer Pernell Whitaker in early '99 and authoritatively defended his title against WBA mandatory challenger Mamadou Thiam.

But a stop at the Jones Depot is where the Trinidad Express would come to a crashing halt.

Some who dispute Trinidad's standing as the world's top fighter might ask "If you think Jones would beat Trinidad so handily, then why do you consider Trinidad your pound-for-pound best?"

Trinidad owns boxing's mythical title not only because he has been physically superior to some of the biggest names in the business, but also because he has been mentally superior. He thinks like the best in the world, taking on anybody and everybody.

Jones, conversely, lacks the ambition to take the extra step to boxing immortality. While he has been limited by fighting in the weakest division in the sport and has shown awesome skills in dominating his inferior competition, he could do so much more.

First of all, he could drop the excuses and finally fight the only other light heavyweight worth a damn, Dariusz Michalczewski. (Note to Roy: If the German insists on fighting in his homeland, go humiliate him in front of his people. We all know you're scarred from the hometown jobbing you experienced at the Seoul Olympics, but get over it.)

Jones also could help his credibility if he would stop teasing everyone by saying he plans to move up to heavyweight. He has been saying that for years and was supposed to fight Buster Douglas at one point before he backed out of a fight he would have been favored to win.

Jones has been haunted by the tragic beating his close friend, Gerald McClellan, took against Nigel Benn in 1995. McClellan suffered serious brain damage, and Jones has been reluctant to get in the ring with anyone who poses a threat. Perhaps to compensate for his unwillingness to test himself, Jones has been known to call out lighter-division fighters such as De La Hoya, an obvious stunt of bravado since the two would never meet.

Trinidad, however, keeps moving up and up and up to fight champion after champion.

Nevertheless, Jones would crush Trinidad not unlike Lennox Lewis would squash Naseem Hamed. The weight is too great to overcome.

Trinidad has yet to fight at 160 pounds, much less 168, and either Joppy or Hopkins easily could derail Trinidad before the Jones fight could even be made.

Trinidad has been able to take his punching power with him so far, but his plodding style will make him increasingly vulnerable as he gets bigger, especially against an opponent with good movement and hand speed.

De La Hoya picked Trinidad apart for several rounds before the Golden Boy got on his bicycle. Jones would do the same. But unlike De La Hoya there would be no Jones retreat.

Jones would bewilder Trinidad with a mix of speed and power rarely seen in the sport. Jones would move in, land a flurry of punches and get out before Trinidad could lay a glove on him.

It would be an ugly, one-sided beating.

It also would be another case of someone having it all yet greedily, foolishly looking for something they're not capable of handling.

I wish Trinidad could see that, but too much machismo and his father's biased judgement have clouded their vision.

Maybe they should see my eye doctor for a little insight.

ESPN.com boxing writer Tim Graham covers boxing for The Buffalo News and The Ring Magazine, and formerly wrote for the Las Vegas Sun.